Gorica coach, Rajko Vidović, says:
We're looking at a match that can give us three points or we can lose three points. We know Dinamo has individual quality and are in top form as a team. My boys are also playing well and they've shown it in the past three matches.
He's referring to his team having a string of 2 draws and 1 win after a string of 1W, 2D, 9L in the 12 prior to that.
He adds:
Dinamo is the favorite here but we won't give away easy points. We will do our best to get a positive result. We hope to grow from match to match.
Dinamo coach, Sergej Jakirović, says:
Gorica took five points from us this season, so we're cautious about the match.
He's referring to the past 3 league head-to-head matches, all played this season. Gorica lost only one of those (1W, 1D).
Croatian U21 player, Nikola Čavlina, says:
We're looking at two very important matches, both opponents are troublesome. Andorra is a disciplined opponent but there we have much greater chances of winning.
Russia has been barred from playing in all international competitions since the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and could only play friendlies vs random countries without a proper team. This is the first proper match in a while for Russia and they will appear with the strongest players but so will Serbia.
Dragan Stojković, Serbia coach, says:
We're looking at a tough match tomorrow, we will try different options. Russia has plenty of good players. This will be a proper test for my team. I'm looking forward to it.
Sergio Conceicao, Porto coach, says:
We travel to London to compete and win the game. We are not afraid of Arsenal or the atmosphere. We have to be prepared to give a positive response defensively, looking at the opponent's goal.
Francisco Conceicao, Porto player, says:
We are going to the Emirates to win the game. I'm very happy. We hope to win the game tomorrow so that this moment of happiness continues. Only by scoring here in the second leg will we be able to advance.
Mikel Arteta, Arsenal coach, says:
I think the impact they [the supporters] can make tomorrow is incredible. I don’t think that they really realise so we need that noise and we need them playing every single ball with us. I want to go out there and play! That’s the feeling that we have; that it is a joy to be part of this club and enjoy being a part of these kind of games. Tomorrow is going to be a great night.
Between the two, I like Porto's approach more. They have a plan and are confident, which is a good sign they have a good chance to execute it.
Dinamo coach, Sergej Jakirović, says:
There is no place for relaxation, we immediately turned our attention to Slaven Belupo. The rhythm is very tough, that's what we wanted all along. We had a training session Friday morning (the morning after they won vs PAOK 2:0).
Dinamo's top scorer, Petković, is missing due to cards but so is Slaven's top scorer, Mioč (cards) and captain, Božić. When asked about Petković after the PAOK match, the coach said:
We all know what Petković means for Dinamo Zagreb. We all remember the painful autumn matches when he was out of the roster (Dinamo had 2W, 2D, 4L during that time).
Roy Ferenčina, Slaven Belupo coach, says:
This will be a difficult match, we know what Dinamo Zagreb is capable of. They have high-quality players and no matter who they field we need to be tough. They are huge favorites but we will be optimistic and let's see what happens.
When asked about his team winning only 1/12 points in the last four matches, he says:
There is no panic in the club. We are not one of the big teams. We have several injuries and we're missing Božić. We need to be realistic and hope to break out of the bad streak before summer.
Roy Ferenčina sounded scared. I think his team will get outplayed but I don't expect too many goals. Petković missing will hamper Dinamo Zagreb's attacking performance so going with few goals is an option too.
THW Kiel coach, Filip Jicha, says:
We can win the group with a point against Zagreb.
THW Kiel captain, Domagoj Duvnjak, says:
The team (RK Zagreb) is really strong at the moment. Everyone knows exactly what they have to do in attack or defense. Zagreb is the old Zagreb again, which can beat any opponent.
Matej Mandić (RK Zagreb goalie) has been playing outstandingly so far. I think he currently has the third best statistics for a goalkeeper in the Machineseeker EHF Champions League.
RK Zagreb coach, Andrija Nikolić, says:
We still have players with some minor injuries but that's how we played vs PSG as well (won 28:26 on February 29). Our opponent is tough and with excellent attackers but we are in a good rhythm and filled with positive energy so let's go there to compete and see what happens.
RK Zagreb player, Ivan Čupić, says:
We will be well prepared, especially tactically, and will try to surprise them. It's important that we play as a team and then anything is possible. It's always nice to play at Kiel and so we should enjoy this opportunity.
TSC Bačka Topola coach, Žarko Lazetić, says in the pre-match press conference:
The biggest possible matchup is vs Crvena Zvezda. We can see they score in all kinds of ways and that they are pedantic and creative. This is a great opportunity to show ourselves. We're in a great momentum, 9 points out of 3 matches after the winter break.
We had two strong defensive training sessions in the interim. If we defend, we will defend as a team and park two buses if needed. I am overjoyed with my team and this a great chance for us.
TSC Bačka Topola goalie, Veljko Ilić, says:
We parried Crvena Zvezda every time we played. I expect a demanding match but we will give our maximum. The match in Belgrade was even until the very last moment (played in November, ended 1:1, TSC equalized in 2nd half stoppage time).
Crvena Zvezda player, Cherif Ndiaye, says on his team's website:
TSC Bačka Topola is one of the best teams in Serbia. We had a stiff match in Belgrade (the draw referenced above) but I think now we can get a positive result.
Široki Brijeg coach, Dino Skender, says:
I expect a difficult match but I want to win it. Our goal is to be better from one week to the next. I believe we will perform well on the field and get all three points.
Široki Brijeg player, Ilija Bagarić, says:
We've started the second part of the season in an excellent way, with two wins, and that's the rhythm we want to maintain moving forward. We know what the coach wants and that is to repeat the same approach we had in our last matches.
The two wins he mentions are with a 2-goal difference against two solid teams. Before the break, Široki Brijeg had four league matches in a row where it failed to score (1D, 3L).
Top scorer for Wrexham, Elliot Lee, says:
It's all about trying to put on a great show, like we did at Coventry last year, and hopefully that can give us another good result. Last year, we were a National League side and took Sheffield United, top of the Championship, all the way. We aim to deliver an FA Cup shock for our followers all over the world.
He's referring to the last year's edition of the FA Cup, where Wrexham tied the first match at home 3:3 and held Sheffield United to a draw in the repeated match until injury time before conceding twice and losing 3:1.
Wrexham coach, Phil Parkinson, says:
It is a game to really look forward to and like we have done in the cup before, it is about going there and giving a good account of ourselves. The supporters who came across to Bramall Lane last year (referring to the repeated match), that was an incredible night.
We'd come so close in the home game and then going to Bramall Lane, everyone thought our chance had gone. Of course, we ended up going out but the manner of the way the lads played on that night and the support we had was an occasion to remember.
It appears there might be a repeat of that match vs Sheffield United, which should mean a draw tonight but I will cover Wrexham win as well.
Benfica coach, Roger Schmidt, says:
After the game on Wednesday [against Estoril, in the semi-final of the League Cup], we want to show a good reaction, play a good game, just like we did in that match, but, of course, we want to win this game.
Benfica drew and lost that match on penalties after conceding from Estoril's only shot on goal.
The coach comments on it:
We dominated the game very well and only allowed the opposition one shot. I'm happy with what we did in the game, because I know what football is like. The best way to win games, and increase the likelihood of that happening, is to create lots of chances and not let the opposition create them. That's exactly what we did.
So, he will use the same strategy as vs Estoril (prevent the opponent from taking a shot on target) and win, which should mean Benfica wins to nil is a no-brainer pick.
The German team player, Rune Dahmke, says:
If you have the chance of a miracle anywhere, it would be in Cologne.
Alfred Gíslason, Germany team coach, says:
We have to put in our best performance in decades to have a chance against Denmark. That’s clear to all of us. They have an incredible depth in the squad and for me they are the best team in the world.
The German players are likely to feel at least some fatigue, having played 7 matches in 16 days.
Reaching the semifinals has also been the official goal of the German Handball Federation. The coach comments on it:
It has been our dream for a year that we reach the semi-finals. It is extremely important for the boys that they have achieved this. We are very happy about it. No matter what happens against Denmark now.
Lack of motivation plus lack of energy should mean Germany keeps up in the first half and then loses steam in the second.
Slovenia team player, Adrian Zeljković, says:
We want to play a good match in San Antonio. Football is played for goals, the result is always important.
USMNT coach, Gregg Berhalter, says:
Our priority is on getting as many players as possible experience in important competitions, and this camp and the match against Slovenia will be extremely valuable in the evaluation process.
With more than 9,000 tickets already sold, the USA-Slovenia match will set an attendance record at Toyota Field.
Croatia team coach, Goran Perkovac, says:
We made too many mistakes and handed over too many balls to France (16 turnovers). Out of those, at least 5 balls went directly to the opposing player's hands and led to a scoring chance. That can't happen on this level of play. If the opponent is better and wins, that's OK, but we shouldn't gift scoring chances to the opponent. We have to avoid that.
Croatia team player, Filip Glavaš, says:
I expect a low-paced game, as I think the defense will be the key to decide the winning team.
Hungary team player, Adrian Sipos, says:
We didn't play our best defense vs Austria and our goalies could have defended better. We believe that won't repeat vs Croatia.
Hungary team goalie, Laszlo Bartucz, says:
We will try to give them a good fight. We want to correct the mistakes we made vs Austria.
Novak Đoković is not in good shape. He played in the opening round of Australian Open on January 14th vs Dino Prižmić, an 18-year-old Croat, and won 3:1 (40 games total) after a 4-hour match. That was the longest opening round match for Đoković in his career.
Đoković played vs Alexei Popyrin on January 17th, and again won 3:1 (41 games total). That match lasted 3 hours. Đoković experienced a wrist issue earlier this month that led to him dropping out of the United Cup, and it seems it hasn't healed properly and that he's been having other health issues.
Đoković says:
I'm almost done with the viral infection that's been hampering me and taking away my sharpness. My forehand has been particularly affected by it. I don't move very well and then my serve suffers as well. I hope this night goes well because the last 5 or 6 weren't ideal in terms of sleep and rest. Still, I've advanced to the next stage and am now facing Etcheverry, who is playing the tennis of his life.
Croatia team coach, Goran Perkovac, says:
We mustn't wrestle with them, they're better than us in that. They have incredible physical strength, they can play quickly and with great agility. They're exceptionally strong in a 1v1 game, which we mustn't agree to. We must let the ball flow around the zone faster.
I think he's referring to Croatia's biggest strength — quick transitions. Indeed, in this tournament Croatia scored 98 goals, a total bested only by Sweden and Denmark (100).
Croatian scorers are also exceptionally precise with 75% accuracy, making the Croatian team the most accurate in the tournament (only Sweden and Netherlands have 70%+ accuracy).
France team player, Nikola Karabatić, says:
Of course it's going to be very difficult. We hope to qualify to the next stage.
France team coach, Guillaume Gille, says:
This tournament is difficult but I said all matches in it are difficult, which is what I expect vs Croatia as well. Every time we play we have to prove ourselves.
PSV Coach, Peter Bosz, says:
We want to win everything there is to win. For now, our attention is entirely on this tournament, we take it very seriously. Relaxation can be fatal. Any team can be dangerous if you are not sharp yourself. For example, look at our last fifteen minutes against Excelsior Rotterdam, when we were very sloppy. We have learned the necessary lessons from that, which we will take with us to Wednesday.
He's referring to the 3:1 win on January 13 where PSV conceded in 82'. Excelsior had 0 shots on target in the first half and only 3 in the second. Based on his statements, PSV will go for the win and feature an impeccable defense today.
Croatian team player, Marin Jelinić, comments on the draw vs Austria:
It's good that we got a reality check after Spain (drew vs Austria when extremely favored). We're a good team but we need a serious approach or we'll be having issues versus every opponent. They played well and we did lose a point but the biggest loss has been Martinović's injury.
Ivan Martinović injured his shoulder vs Austria and is out for the rest of the tournament. In the 2022 European Championship, he was the top scorer for Croatia, scoring 30% of all team goals (37/124). His injury sobered up the coach as well.
Croatian team coach, Goran Perkovac, says:
The Romanians play rough defense, that's where we need to be careful. We can't yield balls too easily, they can punish that. They have one hell of a goalie but my guys can best him. My plan for Romania is to first play a solid defense and not lose 1v1 duels.
Vs Spain, Croatia scored 39 goals out of 42 shots, which is unheard of at this level of handball play. I don't expect a repeat of such a blowout tonight.
Croatian water polo player, Jerko Marinić Kragić, says:
Before the European Championship, Spain was the main contender for the gold medal. This will be a stiff and uncertain match. The ones with cooler heads and a bigger desire will win. The Spaniards are extremely powerful on all positions and in all stages of the game. But, we have our fans and are willing to die for the gold medal.
Croatian commentator, water polo coach, and former national team player, Sandro Sukno, says:
Spain has been showing top performance for years. Strong team, strong individuals, they are mentally strong. They showed all of that in our previous head-to-head match. I expect a similarly stiff match because they're playing the finals.
The two drew 9:9 at the start of the Championship and Croatia won after penalties. It appears something similar might happen in this match as well.
Slovenia player, Borut Mačkovšek, says:
I am convinced that even Vikings can fall. We are aware that water is running down their throats, this is the most important match for them, but it will also bring them pressure. We are confident and believe that we can beat them.
B&H coach, Irfan Smajlagić, says:
I can expect the team to show a new face. Every match is a different story. Now we're faced with a different problem — can players regenerate and adapt in time? We couldn't match the energy levels of Netherlands (lost 20:36 two days ago) and so we paid the price of that rhythm and that learning.
He previously mentioned the B&H team can't keep up for 60 minutes and has a sudden drop in energy levels that leads to periods with no goals scored. He did nothing to fix that and mentioned it again so I expect it to happen tonight. I compared B&H and Georgia performances vs same opponents and found Georgia has the same problem but is overall more energetic in attacks.
Vs Netherlands, B&H had 11 minutes between two goals in the first half. Georgia also lost (26:42) but their biggest scoring gap was 6 minutes in the first half.
Georgia conceded more but scored more than B&H vs Sweden as well. Georgia lost to Sweden 26:42 and B&H lost 29:20.
Both teams suck but based on what I've seen so far B&H sucks more and for longer in the attacking phase and should get outscored by Georgia.
Update 57 minutes before match start: the best B&H goalie will not appear in tonight's match due to his reaction after the loss to Netherlands.
Croatia coach, Goran Perkovac, was ecstatic after the match vs Spain:
We slept for only 3–4 hours because we're already analyzing Austria. Nothing is a problem as long as you're winning.
He is cautious vs Austria:
Austria will be a difficult opponent because of quality individuals. It's going to be a demanding, intense match in which we have to set our rules. They have quick transitions and counter-attacks.
One of Croatia's best scorers vs Spain (8 goals), Mario Šoštarić, says:
Austria is on an upward trajectory. They have an excellent coach who's won trophies and that brought his players confidence and a winning mindset. It will be a difficult match but we know our goal.
This is Bosnia and Herzegovina's third year of participation in this competition. It has yet to win a match.
This year's coach, Irfan Smajlagić, said before playing vs Sweden:
The Yellow Cup (played a few days prior to the Championship, B&H lost all three matches there with -10, -18, and -9 goals) showed the biggest problem with this team is the lack of energy in critical moments. We have to keep the pace up for more than 30–40 minutes.
After losing to Sweden (29:20), he said:
When you play versus a team such as Sweden, a few minutes without any energy leaves you with a score deficit. We matched them at a couple moments in the match but they were like machines. We enjoyed playing with them and we played well but we were missing that energy for the whole 60 minutes.
To make matters worse, his team will lack two important players for tonight's match: Marko Panić (viral infection) and Senjamin Burić (groin injury).
The coach announced today's match by saying:
We're in for an even more demanding match than the last one. They have good runners.
Porto will appear without Pepe, an important defensive player and team captain, because of poor in-game behavior. Porto coach, Sergio Conceicao, says:
Everyone knows how important Pepe is, on and off the field. The punishment has to do with what is written in the referee's report and, from then on, there is nothing to do. Now I have to find solutions to make up for this loss, which is important for us.
Urawa player, Alex Schalk, says about the upcoming match (from Urawa Reds website):
Next up we play against the biggest team in the world. It's the best situation for a club like the Reds to play against a club like this. This is a game that all Japanese people and all Japanese players will be paying attention to, so we want to give it our all. I think it's an honor to represent them.
Goalkeeper, Shusaku Nishikawa, says:
I'm happy to be able to play against Manchester City, but I don't just want to fight, I want to focus on the result and win. Although no one may have expected us to win, it is a chance to spread the name of Urawa Reds around the world, and I think it will be etched in history for the club as well. I think this match is very important in that sense.
Bernardo Silva, Manchester City player, says:
The amount of games we have nowadays, it is a bit crazy because of the rest that players get. The risk of injury is up quite a lot.
Pep Guardiola, Manchester City manager, says about the opponent (source BBC interview):
Japan's national team is beating Germany, winning games against the best in the world. Football in Japan is strong.
On the official website, Pep says:
Football in Japan grew up incredibly in the past ten years. They are sharp and quick on the transitions and unpredictable in many cases.
and also:
We want to win it. Once we are here, it is a trophy we do not have. We want to close the little circle and win all the trophies we could do. This is the last one.
Zrinjski coach, Mario Ivanković, says in a pre-match press conference:
We're hosting a team that's got the best and most attractive playstyle in Europe and is coached by a man with 6 or 7 titles, which speaks a lot about him. We simply want to enjoy ourselves and provide the best possible level of play. We want to treat our fans to an attractive match. We're hosting their strongest lineup; that's a privilege.
The article quotes him as saying his team is ready to give the last atom of energy to provide the best possible level of play. Zrinjski captain, Nemanja Bilbija, says in the same press conference:
We're all enjoying this moment. Aston Villa is the biggest opponent in Conference League and only years later we will become aware of the magnitude of our results.
TSC Bačka Topola coach, Žarko Lazetić, says in the pre-match press conference:
This match is practically the finals, we're in the position that the last match is competitive. That's a big privilege for us and a chance to stay in Europe during spring. We're aware of the kind of opponent we're facing and that Olympiakos is the favorite here, at least judging by its history, but that only motivates us to see this match as a great opportunity to do something big and that's how we're preparing for it.
Olympiakos coach, Carlos Carvalhal, says in the pre-match press conference:
We absolutely respect TSC Bačka Topola. We know that they are a strong team, just as we know that even with a draw we will ensure continuity in Europe, but with respect to Topola we have prepared to win the match. One cannot change everything in ten days [this is his first match with Olympiacos], no structural changes have been made, but we have said what we need to pay attention in the match to win the game.
When asked about the empty arena (no attendance due to high risk of violence), he says:
It's definitely a bad situation and we don't like it, as it will remind us of the Covid-19 era when we played without people and it's not something nice.
Partizan coach, Igor Duljaj, says in a pre-match press conference:
For us every match is difficult but the one we're looking at is exceptionally difficult. For a while now we've witnessed the Radnički Niš pitch in very poor condition but we have no choice than to play on it. In December it's not possible to play soccer, not because of the -12 °C temperature, but because of pitches like the one we're going to. How are both teams supposed to show quality soccer? It's difficult.
When asked by the reporter if such a torn up pitch evens the quality of both teams, he says:
It's always easier for the defending team on such a pitch. We're definitely handicapped because of it. This isn't me making an excuse, it's just that not all teams have an adequate pitch to play on.
Hajduk coach, Mislav Karoglan, says in a pre-match press conference (paywalled video, retold by an article):
I will use the same lineup that's been winning. Our opponent likes playing against big teams, they snagged points off of Dinamo (unclear what he's referring to), Rijeka (1:1 on November 3), and Osijek (1:1 on November 11). It's a young team, full of drive. They can beat anyone. I don't expect us to dominate the whole 90 minutes.
On the nearly frozen pitch:
I don't like that topic, it's the same for both teams. We have to give our best to take points in today's match.
On sparing players for the upcoming derby (vs Dinamo on December 17):
There will be no sparing players. Those who think like that will be substituted. This is the big match.
Lokomotiva coach, Silvijo Čabraja, says in a pre-match statement:
We will do our best to take the match where we want it. The arena will be packed and have maybe 70% away fans but that will give great motivation to my guys.
B&H women's team manager, Samira Hurem, said in the pre-match press conference:
I regret not achieving the goal we set for ourselves vs Slovenia (lost 2:1 after leading). It's obvious the pressure of getting the first position in the table got to us. Now the pressure is lower but we still want to win. The match vs Belarus will be difficult and I don't want to underestimate them. We saw what they can do vs much stronger teams than them.
The article quotes her as stating the Belarus team is the most disciplined in the group.
B&H team will not feature the captain and the top scorer of the team, Nikolić (suspended), and two other players, Aleksić and Gavrić (injured).
TSC Bačka Topola coach, Žarko Lazetić, says in the pre-match press conference:
We have the experience of playing West Ham where we performed very well defensively. I think with the confidence of the last match (won vs Partizan away 0:4) my players will be able to parry West Ham even better; in the first match we managed to hold out 60ish minutes. If we can do it for 80–90 minutes, we will see if we manage a better result.
West Ham will travel without Jarred Bowen, the team's top scorer in the domestic league.
West Ham coach, David Moyes, says in a BBC interview:
Jarrod hasn't travelled and we've got another couple who have some illness.
Sparta Prague on Saturday played a Czech championship match vs Pardubice and won 5:2, conceding from the only two shots on target Pardubice had in the entire match, both coming after the 1-hour mark. Pardubice is a very weak team, failing to score in the other two Czech championship matches it played so far.
Sparta Prague player, Jan Kuchta, commented on those two goals:
It was a warning. We have to play until the end, be selfless and responsible.
That kind of lax defense doesn't bode well vs Copenhagen that won 8/10 of its most recent home matches (1D, 1L) and scored 2+ goals in each win. Copenhagen failed to score in that loss and only scored once in the draw. If Copenhagen can't score twice, it probably doesn't win.
Sparta Prague player, Asger Sorensen, says about Copenhagen offense:
They look very strong so we have to do well, not only in defense but the whole team.
Copenhagen is an exceptionally strong home side in Champions League and can shut out the opponent, previously holding Manchester City, Sevilla, and Borussia Dortmund to a draw at home, but I think it won't settle for a draw tonight.
Sparta Prague hasn't conceded in the first half in the last 6/6 competitive matches, which could happen here as well, with its defense buckling in the second half.
Feyenoord defender, Gernot Trauner, says:
It's hard to say who's the favorite. PSV did really well, it didn't lose in the last 17 [competitive] games, so that says a lot. It's hard to beat them but it's also hard to beat us in our home stadium. I expect quite an equal game, it will be tight.
PSV captain, Luuk de Jong, says:
That's going to be a tough match for us, as always in De Kuip.
PSV is the indisputable favorite in the Dutch Super Cup finals, holding 13 wins out of 20 appearances. However, it typically struggles in De Kuip, winning only 1 out of 6 last matches there (2D, 3L).
The last time these two teams met in the Dutch Super Cup final was in 2016, with PSV winning 1:0. My thoughts are that something similar will happen here, with PSV controlling the match through defense.
If you can't find this pick natively use the bet builder option at your sportsbook.
Both teams had their share of chances in the first leg, but the match ended 0:1 for Austria Wien thanks to Tabaković's 2nd half stoppage time goal. In the intervening days he signed on for Hertha, meaning Austria Wien will have its attack dulled significantly.
Borac Banja Luka team member, Raspudić, says:
They are a serious opponent, we scouted them and know their strengths. They also have more experience in European matches. We won't give up, we'll try to do the impossible, but we have to be patient and won't rush them.
Austria Wien coach, Michael Wimmer, says:
Our opponent has compact defense with quality individuals. We are well prepared for an energetic dance.
Zrinjski coach, Krunoslav Rendulić, says:
Slovan is a tough team that has solid individuals that don't panic or lose their bearings. They can play just as well with a player sent off, meaning we're up against a very strong opponent, but we're aware of our qualities and want a win.
He's referring to last year's clash versus Slovan, where Zrinjski won 1:0 at home after Slovan had a player sent off.
Kevin Wimmer, Slovan player, says:
They can always score from crosses, with headers, they have very good strikers in the box. For us it will be very important to be focused 90 minutes, always to defend all together very good, and then of course we will try to score. With 11 men on the pitch, for every opponent it's very difficult to score against us.
Slovan goalie, Milan Borjan, will be under tremendous pressure tonight because he issued a provocative statement regarding Croatia (Zrinjski players are predominantly Croats). Zrinjski players and fans will use every trick in the book to distract and upset him, which is another factor that contributes to the possibility of a Zrinjski win.
It was only a month ago that Lyngby manifested a miracle to avoid league relegation, staying up thanks to goal difference. That was in large part thanks to recent home performance — Lyngby lost only 1/8 home league matches in 2023 (4W, 3D), scoring in 7/8 and conceding in 7/8.
Copenhagen coach, Jacob Neestrup, notes their "Great Escape" and says:
You can call them miracle makers. It was impressive they pulled through. I think it will be an intense match. It's about getting a good start in the Superliga, which unfortunately we haven't been in the habit of for quite a few seasons.
Lyngby captain, Marcel Romer, says:
We are taking last season's Great Escape with us. Lyngby Stadium has carried us forward recently, and the stadium becomes really electric when we play these kinds of matches. [Copenhagen] mentality will probably be to beat us nine times out of 10, but we believe we can tease them.
Lyngby regularly gets trashed when away to Copenhagen (1W, 1D, 8L) but put up quite a fight when hosting in recent years, losing only 2/5 (2W, 1D) and with 4/5 presenting "BTTS & over 3.5 goals".
The first leg ended 2:2 after Sarajevo failed to capitalize on a whole host of chances. That outcome apparently rattled Sarajevo, resulting in a more cautious approach, which will dull its powerful attacking potential and give more wiggle room to Torpedo Kutaisi.
Sarajevo coach, Mirza Varešanović, says:
We're looking at an even-keeled match versus a very strong opponent that has a lot of experience, solid team organization, and remarkable individuals. I don't think my team is tactically superior.
Sarajevo player, Almedin Ziljkić, says:
Torpedo Kutaisi is a serious team that we shouldn't underestimate at any moment. They got some powerful players, but it's ultimately all down to our approach. I think we prepared ourselves well.
Torpedo Kutaisi goalie, Filip Kljajić, says:
Sarajevo has the most quality in attack [but] I expect a more cautious approach. I don't think there will be as many chances as in the first leg.
Torpedo Kutaisi player, Merab Gigauri, says:
Sarajevo is a good team, chances are 50-50 that we go through. We came here to win, it's going to be tough but we will win.
ATP #1 and #2 go for a career-defining win in the Wimbledon finals.
The two recently met during French Open, with Alcaraz losing the first set 6:3, clawing back into the second set with 7:5, but then suffering a devastating leg cramp in the third set due to anxiety. Đoković jumped on the opportunity and easily won, but this time around the roles might be reversed.
Carlos Alcaraz says:
I'll try to pull out all nerves, try to enjoy that moment, because probably in the semi-final at the French Open I didn't enjoy at all in the first set. I'll do something different from that match.
Juan Carlos Ferrero, Alcaraz coach, says:
I advised him yesterday to try and stay away from anything that is said about the final. If we make the giant even bigger it is impossible to beat him. We’re going to take it to him and forget the stats. He’s a player, with two arms and two legs like us.
Novak Đoković says:
Pressure is there, it's still very high. I still feel goosebumps and butterflies and nerves coming into every single match. So I'm going to be coming into Sunday's final like it's my first.
According to the odds the first set has a:
That doesn't line up with how both performed in the six pre-final matches and how even they are. Both played around 15 hours of tennis and lost only two sets. Alcaraz saved 19/25 break points while Đoković saved 16/19. In head-to-head they stand at 1 win each.
I expect a nailbiter we were denied in French Open and I expect it from the first set, especially since Đoković was seen training for the finals with a leg bandage, which he did not sport in Wimbledon so far.
South Africa goalie, Jethren Barr, received an ankle knock in the match vs Eswatini. He hasn't trained with the rest of the team on Wednesday and might not be fit for this match.
According to match reports he acted as the pillar of defense and kept South Africa afloat after conceding the opening goal, which happened in all three prior COSAFA Cup matches.
South Africa player, Lyle Lakay, says:
I was joking with the guys that maybe we need to start the game being 1-0 down because in all the three games after we went 1-0 down there was a reaction. The teams that made it through to the semis, I would expect them to be attack-minded. You saw the fight, the hunger and if only we can start games in the same manner, on the front foot from [the] first whistle instead of waiting for teams to score and react.
As for Zambia, it scored 6 goals across 3 COSAFA Cup matches, only failing to score vs the exceptionally tight Malawi that conceded only 1 goal across 5 matches.
England U21 played the entire tournament (5 matches) without conceding a goal. England U21 player, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, says:
It's something the whole team takes pride in. We've got it in our locker to stick together and put your body on the line to keep it out. James (goalie) has been a massive part of that but I could go through all the bench and they'd all do the same.
Spain U21 played in Bucharest, 800 miles away from this match venue. I expect travel fatigue to set in and help dull the team attack.
Norrkoping does on average score slightly over 1 goal per home match but has lost Sigurdsson, 2nd best attacker who scored 5/18 team goals, to Blackburn, while Hacken has the tighest away defense in the league (only conceded 5 goals across 6 away matches).
Norrkoping coach, Vito Mistrati, says:
We have a clearer division of roles today compared to the last time we met Hacken in the Cup (lost 3:0 in March), relationships have developed and that has made us more stable.
It is important that we accept that we will not have much of the ball. They are allowed to have the ball in harmless areas and we need to move quickly once we get the ball to find the spaces behind their defence.
Hacken player, Valgeir Lunddal, says:
It will be a tough match. It is always difficult to face good teams away. But we have shown that we can win against any team in the league. It will be great to play a match with BK Hacken again (he played national matches). We want to keep the ball, attack, and above all keep a clean sheet. I hope we can get three points.
Norrkoping hasn't won any of the five head-to-head matches (2D, 3L) and has only scored in 2/5.
Goteborg is in relegation form, netting only 1 win in 12 league matches (6:0 in May). It did appoint Jens Askou as the new coach and he already led the team to one loss and one win in a friendly vs Malmo (0:1). He says:
We can build on the feeling of winning and that can give the fans some hope after a hard time, which they have had.
Only winners have the luxury of hope and Goteborg can't afford it because of the 3rd worst attack in the league and the worst attack as the away team (scored only 3 goals in 6 away matches). For this match Goteborg also won't have its best striker, Ohlsson, due to injury. As for Halmstad, it has decent defense at home, conceding only 4 goals across 6 home matches.
A new coach generally motivates the players to prove themselves to retain their positions. In this case I don't see who is going to score goals for Goteborg, who did acquire a new midfielder, Thomas Santos, from Norway's Horsens where he scored 4 goals across 30 league matches in the top competition.
Both teams are capable of scoring and have done so recently. Spain U21 scored in 9/10 recent matches while Switzerland U21 scored in 10/10. The most recent head-to-head ended up 3:2 for Spain U21 in March (friendly match).
Georgia U21 is one of the co-hosts of the tournament, meaning it will have more fan support than Israel U21, who I think doesn't deserve to be here. Israel U21 showed weak performance so far, eking out a draw vs fairly weak Germany U21 by saving two penalties and winning one match vs Czechia U21 by 1:0.
I think Georgia U21 is a much better team and will secure a win in regular time here.
Final match of the Champions League preliminary qualification round. Played in Breidablik's stadium, giving it a home field advantage though Budućnost is not going to appear with a white flag.
Breidablik scored and conceded in the last 5/5 matches, with all of them ending at over 3.5 goals total. Breidablik won the most recent match 1:7 versus San Marino's Tre Penne. Meanwhile, Budućnost won 0:3 versus Andorra's Atletic Escaldes.
Budućnost player, Vasilije Adžić, said prior to the Atletic Escaldes match:
We have the highest possible expectations before this tournament. We have to go for the win and believe in it. Our biggest advantage is the high attacking potential.
Budućnost coach, Miodrag Džudović, says:
We're facing a highly organized and mobile opponent that likes to transition quickly, rotate the wingers, and go directly at the goal. We have to respond tactically and physically. I think the chances are 50-50.
National Bank hasn't lost in the last 11 matches (6W, 5D) that stretch back to mid-April. As the home team National Bank last lost in January.
In six head-to-head matches Al Ahly only won twice (4D), never as the away team, and with all six under 2.5 goals total.
Stromsgodset recently won 2:0 vs the strongest team in the league, Bodo Glimt, by shutting it out of the match. I was fairly surprised by its organized defense that managed to kneecap the strongest attack in Eliteserien that scores 3 goals per match on average.
Molde failed to impress in the last three matches (2W 1L), scoring only two goals throughout. All three were under 1.5 goals total. I'm expecting a similarly low-scoring match in this case as well, with Stromsgodset avoiding the loss in regular time (this is a single-leg cup).
Germany U21 has serious confidence issues after netting only 1 point from two matches in the competition. In the first match Germans missed two penalties to ultimately draw 1:1; in the second they lost 2:1 after a late-game goal. Now they need a win but are unlikely to get it versus England U21, which is in peak form after winning two matches without conceding.
England U21 coach, Lee Carsley, says:
I think it is important we keep that momentum going, that’s a big thing for us. We’ve got a highly motivated squad of players but now it is important that they all feel part of it and that they all get game time so it’s good that we have put ourselves in the position that we have going into the Germany game.
I interpret that to mean he will shuffle some players around but still aim to win tonight.
USMNT has so far failed to impress in the Gold Cup, barely eking out a draw vs Jamaica through a late-game equalizer. One reason might be fatigue as the team has just won the CONCACAF Nations League.
St. Kitts and Nevis is a definite underdog in today's match and has lost the initial Gold Cup match 3:0 to Trinidad & Tobago, but I think there's little indication USMNT will trounce it by something like 5:0 as suggested by the odds.
Spain U21 will keep the first position in the group as long as it doesn't lose today vs Ukraine U21, which seems probable. Seeing how both teams haven't conceded so far in the Euro U21 and between them they played just 1/4 matches that had over 2.5 goals total, they might play a low-scoring match today as well.
Bodo Glimt is in almost perfect form in the league (9W 1D), scoring 30 goals throughout. I expect a decisive win today as well.
Viking scores like mad and has scored 2+ goals in 4/5 last matches (only hasn't scored twice versus Bodo Glimt, the best team in the league).
Earlier in June Al Ahly won the African Champions League, leading to much celebration in the team that now has to go back to the league grind and wrap up the postponed matches.
Al Ahly has 6 postponed league matches and is trailing 2 points behind the leader while boasting an almost perfect away form (9W, 1D) that includes only 3 goals conceded. There is no rush to earn points and I suspect Al Ahly will not put the pedal to the metal straight away, especially if met by an unusually tough opponent.
Haras is rock-bottom in the table and needs 12/12 points from the next 4 league matches to have a theoretical chance of avoiding relegation, which doesn't seem probable. One saving grace is that it has pretty tight defense at home, conceding only 14 goals across the last 14 matches while only scoring 7. Another is that after 9 losses in a row and a coach change it finally started improving its form (2W, 1D).
Taking into account all of the above I expect a low scoring match that has a high chance of ending up in Al Ahly's favor and a rather small chance of ending up level, with Haras even possibly scoring.
My bookie offers this pick natively at 2. If you want to tail and can't find it use a bet builder or use the info in my analysis to figure out your own pick.
Two strong teams that tend to play low-scoring matches. Across the last 8 head-to-head matches 5 ended up drawn. Also, France's last 10 home matches have no losses, same as with Italy's last 10 away matches.
There was a definite lack of fitness during B&H's last match vs Portugal, resulting in five subs due to players complaining about fatigue and injuries. Those five included Džeko, Pjanić, and Kolašinac, the three firing pins of B&H. The fitness woes continue today against Luxembourg, which dismissed two top players, Gerson and Thill, due to lack of discipline.
At best, Luxembourg can hope for a 0:0 to stay ahead of B&H in the table. I think B&H will give its best to win today, with only remote chances of the kind of trouncing Luxembourg normally experiences in away matches. In 7 head-to-head matches B&H won all 7, conceding only once, which makes 1:0 or 2:0 seem likely today as well.
Gibraltar is typically a punching bag but has recently shown signs of improved defensive performance, losing only 0:3 to France. I say "only" because one of those was an own goal and the other a penalty. Prior to that Gibraltar lost 3:0 to Netherlands, conceding only once while playing with 10 men for almost the entirety of the second half.
While I believe Gibraltar will lose this match as well, it had only two of its Euro qualifiers ever have under 2.5 goals total, both against Ireland, which seems likely today as well.
There are several signs both teams will be cautious, at least in the first half. First of all, both previous UNL finals were goalless at half time, indicating that teams who get there don't rush blindly.
Croatia coach, Zlatko Dalić, says:
Now we need to stay calm and smart, not rush anywhere, towards that gold.
Croatia player, Ivan Perišić, says:
We do have more experience than they do. We might have a small competitive advantage.
Spain coach, Luis de la Fuente, says:
I see it as a very even contest, each team has their own strong characteristics but we have both shown that today we are the two best teams in Europe. We would like to win the game inside the 90 minutes. They have more experience, and that half hour (of extra time) is vital in terms of experience. A calm head sets the tone, and I think Croatia are also very strong physically.
Spain player, Rodri, says:
We have played Croatia quite a few times, they are very competitive as a team, with outstanding individual players who keep pushing till the end.
I expect Spain to be the dominant force and Croatia to try and get the match to extra time, in which case I favor Croatia. There could be a few goals in the 2nd half, especially by Spain past the 80+ minute mark, due to the absence of Croatia's defender, Joško Gvardiol.
B&H will appear without Krunić (injured) and possibly Džeko (fatigued), reducing the chances of getting anything out of this match to around 0%. The team has also had issues with the flight that was delayed twice, which cut into their training and rest before the match.
The consensus in the B&H betting community is that this match will essentially be forfeited to keep the players fresh for the upcoming Luxembourg match. The latest two matches seem to confirm the strategy of banking everything on home wins and ignoring away matches (B&H won 3:0 vs Iceland and lost 2:0 vs Slovakia, attempting only one shot on target in the latter).
B&H coach, Faruk Hadžibegić, says:
There's no use crying about it. We're facing the European champion that has top-level players.
Also, Cristiano Ronaldo's son is celebrating his 13th birthday, which should serve as an additional motive for him to score a few extra.
Austria seems to me a team capable of scoring at least once thanks to a star-studded lineup. Austrian nationals mostly play in German clubs, which have a habit of scoring a few goals more, which makes me think they could carry that over to tonight's match as well. Austria also has a tradition of scoring vs Belgium, averaging almost 3 goals per match.
Kosovo scored and conceded in 6/6 last matches but hasn't managed to win in any of the last four (D4). Romania scored in the last 6/6 and conceded in the last 4/6. I think Romania is a slight favorite here, with 1:2 a likely scoreline.
San Marino loses all the time but has recently tightened its defenses up, losing the last two by the 2:0 scoreline. I think that for San Marino losing 1:0 or 2:0 is tantamount to a win, an admirable goal they should reach today as well.
Finland's Teemu Pukki scored 10 goals across his 10 appearances for the national team. As for Slovenia, Benjamin Šeško scored 5 goals across his last seven national appearances.
Denmark lost its last match 3:2 after leading 0:2 at half time. That indicates problems with team defense, which are evident in 3 World Cup matches prior. N. Ireland is capable of scoring and has done so in 5/6 of its last matches.
After winning the opening round vs Kecmanović, Raonić said:
It was very stressful at times. I didn’t just want to come back and to be a player that I wouldn’t be proud of, so it took a lot of energy for me to put in. I’m happy I got to here and am very grateful that I can play.
I think Raonić is going to give it his all to win today vs Thompson in straight sets without tiebreakers. Thompson showed signs of struggle in his opening round in s-Hertogenbosch vs #233 Mpetshi.
French LNB playoff finals, best-of-five format.
This is the second match, with Monaco winning the first 87:64 two days ago. Simply put, Monaco is a Euroleague-tier team that wants to flex its muscles before traveling to the Boulogne-Levallois arena.
Alcaraz cramping turned the epic clash we had all hoped for into a teaser trailer. Still, that match gave me valuable insights into how today's match might play out.
Alcaraz said about his cramps:
Yes, I was tense because of the match. I started out nervous, and we played two intense sets. It was a combination of factors, but the chief one was the tension I felt.
The cramps came at the perfect moment to save Đoković's energy for the finals, because things were getting ugly for him in the second set. He was broken twice and at one point clawed his way back from 0:40 to win his serve, which tells me Đoković's serving form is mediocre and tends to wobble as the match goes on. I also saw Đoković bandage his right forearm, indicating the exertion is taking its toll. One problem he doesn't have is mental pressure.
Đoković says:
History is always hovering over me. Pressure is always on my shoulders, so it's not going to be different. I hope that I'll play my best tennis level on Sunday. The only thing I can say now is that I'm very focused. I'm very happy to be in this position to write history of this sport.
His opponent, Ruud, blazed through the tournament, crushing Zverev with a bagel in a bit over 2 hours. He is capable of extraordinary performance that so far hasn't translated into major wins because of performance anxiety. But, this time it could be different.
Ruud says:
At the start of the tournament I had no expectation I could reach the finals. The challenge I'm about to face is the biggest one in the year. The most important part is that I don't feel any pressure, which is how I managed to play vs Sasha [Zverev]. Sometimes you play the best tennis when you go on autopilot. I'll try to achieve that state in the grand finals. I'll get myself ready for a long, marathon match where I'll play point by point, and we'll see how it goes.
The bookies have written off Ruud, giving him a <25% chance to win. In my opinion, that should be more like 50%. Whether Ruud has any chances of winning depends on his calmness past the second set. This is not going to be pretty, but I wouldn't miss it for the world and neither should you.
Manchester City has been dominating throughout the season, but this match is another pair of sleeves. It carries a certain pressure that will require a more tactical approach and nerves of steel.
Manchester City sunk ungoldly money into forming a team that can win the Champions League. Jack Grealish alone cost Manchester City as much as the entire Inter starting lineup combined (€120mm). The results came with Haaland scoring 52 goals this season compared to Inter's three top scorers combined netting 56. Still, raw attacking power won't be enough.
Manchester City coach, Pep Guardiola, says:
We have to be patient. The most important thing in this type of game is thinking we are 0:0 and thinking we are losing. Italian teams are 0:0 and think they are winning. They are not winning; it is 0:0. We have to be stable and get rhythm and be stable. In bad moments we need to step forward. It will happen. 1:0 down or 1:0 up so in both circumstances be stable.
That advice makes sense, because Inter boasts solid defense that resulted in a clean sheet in previous 5/6 Champions League matches (vs Porto, Benfica, and Milan). In all six the score was level at half time. Still, Inter has the oldest average age of the starting lineup in Serie A, which makes me think that same defense might start slipping up and failing in the second half.
Recent Champions League finals played out in a way that validates my line of thinking, with goals coming late in the match. Across the last ten finals only 7/28 goals were scored in the first half (bolded for your convenience):
Youth versus experience.
Alcaraz is undoubtedly in extraordinary shape and crushes his opponents with destructive forehands. However, his fitness tends to falter if he can't set his pace and the match prolongs beyond what he's comfortable with or he relaxes.
On the other hand, Đoković has enough experience to adapt his playstyle to slow the pace down and prolong the match, draining his opponent's strength and motivation. In tiebreakers, Đoković uses a specific mindset that is reflected in his tiebreaker performance in this year's French Open — he hasn't made a single unforced error across the 47 points played.
Alcaraz says:
Đoković plays fantastic tennis, he returns everything like a wall. I'll try to forget everything and focus only on tennis. I think it will be an uncertain match, he has an extra gear where he seems invincible. I'll try to dictate my pace, but it will be complicated to play the way I want. I can't let myself relax, which is what happened vs Tsitsipas (Alcaraz led 5:3 in the third set, wasted two match points, and won 7:6(5)).
Đoković says:
I'll be ready for a fight, this might be the longest match in the tournament. I don't know how many chances I'll have for another trophy, so I'll play to the last drop of sweat and blood. In tiebreakers the format is different; each point can decide the tiebreak direction. I only focus on what I'm about to do during tiebreakers, which helps me mentally and my opponents know it.
I see two outcomes here: a) Alcaraz comes strong out of the gate and overpowers Đoković or b) Đoković manages to vary his shots and control the match to force tiebreakers, where he's confident in how he plans his shots.
The two have only met once, in last year's clay semifinals in Spain. Alcaraz won 7:6(5), 5:7, 6(5):7.
Two top tennis players, ranked #4 and #6 respectively. Rune is the one showing the most improvement in his game over the last few months, beating Đoković in the finals in Rome and losing only to another top player, Medvedev, in the past ten matches.
What caught my eye is that both players have a tendency to win the first sett. Rune won 8/10 first sets in the last 10 matches he played. The two times he lost the first set was to Medvedev and — Casper Ruud, which was also a tiebreak. As for Casper Ruud, he has 9/10 first sets won in his last 10 matches.
All of the above tells me to expect a bitter struggle to win the first set, which should result in this pick easily winning.
Biskra scored in the last seven in a row and conceded in the last 6/7. Meanwhile, USM Alger has 4/5 last home matches in the league at over 2.5 goals total.
Fiorentina scored 2.57 goals per UECL game this season while West Ham scored 2.25 per.
Final match of the ABA League semifinals, with each team having one win apiece. These two teams are equal in quality and Partizan often struggles to defeat Cedevita.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches Partizan won 5, with three of those with a 7+ point handicap. Across those 10 matches Partizan scored 831 points and Cedevita scored 825. Partizan is capable of trouncing Cedevita, but tonight's match doesn't look like it.
Cedevita coach, Miro Alilović, says:
[We] have to play as a team in defense, control the rebounds, and at the same time try to connect the game so that we play as a team in defense and attack.
Cedevita player, Yogi Ferrell, says:
We are extremely motivated, as we are offered the opportunity to win a place in the finals. You train for this the whole season, and our job is to step on the court and do our best.
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
We need to vastly improve our rebound efficiency, react better to their defensive adjustments, and maintain our aggressiveness from start to finish.
Partizan player, Ioannis Papapetrou, says:
It will be a difficult match, but we have to play well and win because we want to qualify to the finals. They will come ready to fight and give it their all.
Varberg is the worst team in Allsvenskan, so far failing to win this season (5D, 5L), scoring only 7 but conceding only 20 goals across 10 matches, 6 of which were in a single match to Malmo.
A partial explanation for such dismal performance is a viral infection decimating the squad. Following that Malmo match, Varberg gradually recovered the squad potential to the point of scoring in four matches in a row.
Varberg coach, Jocke Persson, says:
After the virus affected over half the squad, we got to see starting debutants like Leo Jansson, Dion Krasniqi, Maxime Sainte, and Filipe Sisse. The Swedish champions come on Monday, so the "underdog costume" is probably bigger than usual. We will enjoy the match and give them a real fight.
Meanwhile, Hacken played 12 competitive matches this season, conceding in 11. It conceded in the last 8 head-to-head matches as well, with the most recent two hosted by Varberg ending up 1:1 after Varberg led at half time.
4/5 last head-to-head matches ended up under 2.5 goals total. Also, 4 Real Madrid attackers (Asensio, Hazard, Diaz, and Benzema, who is 2nd best LaLiga scorer) announced their exit after today's match, which makes me think they either won't appear or won't play with zest.
Clermont player, Mory Diaw, says:
There are only positives in the way the season ended [for us]. It's now up to us to go there and enjoy ourselves and do what we know to do, which is hound [them] a little bit. I don't think there will be the score of the first leg.
Clermont coach, Pascal Gastien, says:
We want to do a solid match and do things seriously. We're going to calibrate ourselves against the best team in France.
In three previous head-to-head matches, Clermont conceded 15 goals and scored 1. Based on their statements, it seems Clermont will try not to lose with a big difference, but will ultimately still lose, which I expect it will do without scoring.
Alcaraz is currently #1 on the ATP list. The last match he played was vs Daniel Taro (#112), who he trounced but still lost a set. I expect Shapovalov (#32) to be able to take a set off of him as well.
Match with only minor significance for Serie A rankings. Fiorentina is playing an important match in a few days, so I expect squad rotations and a tame scoring potential.
Đoković says:
I lost to Fokina in Monaco last year in a weird match at the start of clay season, which is when I play worse than usual. He's a specialist for clay, a player that's advanced in the past few years and won against some big players, such as Rune in Madrid. He's a complete player, very capable of playing on a high level, and one of the toughest opponents I could have gotten.
Fokina is a dropshot expert and I expect a lot of running from Đoković, which should make for an epic match.
First leg. Bundesliga relegation playoff matches normally favor the top-tier team, in this case Stuttgart. In the last 9/10 years it's the top-tier team that stayed in First Bundesliga. That one team that got relegated was Stuttgart in 2019.
Stuttgart's home form in First Bundesliga this season was mediocre (5W, 6D, 6L), on average conceding a goal for each goal scored. The standard goalie, Fabian Bredlow, might not appear today due to an injured medial collateral knee ligament, which lowers its chances of winning.
HSV coach, Tim Walter, says:
We have scored 70 goals in 34 games this season, scored 66 points and won 20 games, more than any other team. Of course we're going to Stuttgart to win. We want to play to our strengths in possession, be very active and keep the opponent busy so they can't play to their strengths. If we can do that, then it's not easy to play against us.
Stuttgart coach, Sebastian Hoeneß, says:
Hamburg have good individual players and cause their opponents problems when in possession. Their style of play also carries risks, though. We hope to be able to cause them problems with our strength in attack.
Their head-to-head history is replete with BTTS, which might not happen today if HSV succeeds in controlling possession.
Jose Luis Mendilibar revitalized Sevilla. In 15 matches under his guidance Sevilla has only 2 losses (7W, 6D), scoring in 13. The most telling fact is that Sevilla scored the opening goal in 11/13 matches. That tells me he motivates players to put early pressure on the opponent.
On the other side is Mourinho, whose specialty is choking the life out of a match, which rarely works versus a determined or agile opponent, as we saw in the Salernitana match. As a consequence, Roma under Mourinho has only a 50% winrate (54W, 24D, 30L), the lowest in his entire 23-year coaching career, and has scored the fewest goals per match (1.51) of all the teams he's coached in the past 21 years.
Roma player, Lorenzo Pellegrini, says about Roma parking the bus:
Going into a match with the right tactics means trying to stop our opponents from doing what they’re best at. We always analyze our opponents and try to understand the best way to curb their strengths.
Sevilla player, Oliver Torres, says about putting early pressure on the opponent:
We first need to start the game and show our excitement, and show them how we want to win the trophy and [that we] will do whatever we need to. We are already showing on the pitch that we want to win it, but in this match you have to show it much more. That is how we are going to start the match, as favorites and coming in strong to win the trophy.
The last 13 Europa League finals had an average of 2.92 goals per match, but I don't see the average being fulfilled unless Sevilla goes on the offensive and scores an early goal, which I imagine could happen in the first half.
Bodo Glimt is the strongest team in Eliteserien (7W, 1D) thanks to scoring 21 goals across. Any team that wants to snatch points from Bodo Glimt must have rock-solid defense. That's exactly the plan for Viking, the second best team (4W, 2D, 1L) that only lost the opening day match while scoring 16 across.
One Viking coach, Bjarte Lunde Aarsheim, says:
Many players are fit. This will be a physically tough match and we will need more than the starting eleven.
Viking player, Sander Svendsen, says:
We know we can score goals at Aspmyra [Bodo Glimt stadium], so it's about being tight enough at the back. We have the qualities both ways, and it's entirely possible to take points with us from there.
Head-to-head history reveals defense was always the pain point for Viking. In the most recent match, played in March, Viking led 0:2 and ended up losing 5:3. In another match, played in November, Viking had a 0:4 lead and ended up losing 5:4. Both of those were played in the Norwegian NM Cup.
Final match of the season for both teams. Manchester City is crowned champion but wants to retain the winning momentum for the upcoming Champions League final while Brentford can reach spot #7 that leads to Europa Conference League qualifiers by winning.
Brentford is having a stellar season, losing only 2/18 league home matches this season and scoring 34 goals across 16 of those. However, its best scorer, Toney, is suspended for 8 months for betting violations. He scored about 30% of Brentford's goals this season.
Brentford coach, Thomas Frank, says:
I'm a big dreamer, I'm a big believer. I believe that everything is possible in football. It's a massive, massive mountain ahead of us. But, at home, with this group of players, I think anything is possible.
Strasbourg has the fourth best form in the league; PSG has the second best, so the teams aren't that distant in terms of scoring potential.
PSG also managed to concede in 4/5 last away matches, including to crummy Auxerre, which makes me think Strasbourg has a shot at scoring twice tonight.
Both teams' forms hint at a draw and/or a low-scoring match. Although Koln scored in the last 7/8 matches, in the past 5 home matches it scored only 6 while conceding 6. Meanwhile, Bayern scored 7 while conceding 7 in the past 5 away matches.
Coach statements also indicate a cautious approach on both sides. Koln coach, Steffen Baumgart, says:
FC Bayern are a strong team that will try to steer the game in their own direction with great pressure. Nevertheless, we will play our football. We go into the duel with a lot of respect. There is nothing better than being able to play against Bayern Munich at all.
Bayern coach, Thomas Tuchel, says
It's extremely difficult to score and win goals in Cologne. We need complete focus and small success stories. We need our quality from the first second and we can't afford to lose concentration. We clearly have to stick to the plan to be able to hurt Cologne and win this game.
H2H history favors Bayern (Koln won 23, drew 24, lost 50). Koln hasn't won in the last 17 H2H matches and I don't expect it to win today either. However, Koln holds the record for the most distance run in the entire Bundesliga, which makes me think it will control the match and steer it towards a draw.
Salernitana is on an upward trajectory, drawing 2:2 away to Roma the last time out (was leading twice). In the last 10 matches, Salernitana won only twice but also lost only once, scoring in all ten (16 goals total). That kind of consistency is bound to give results, primarily in the form of winning over established Serie A teams.
Udinese is in poor away form, losing four away matches in a row to nil while conceding 9. Across six away matches prior to that, Udinese scored only 3 (three) while conceding 5. That indicates a steadily worsening away form that makes it the prime candidate for a loss today.
I see Salernitana as much stronger than the odds show and think it has a chance to reach new heights by winning today.
Union Berlin is slipping, especially in terms of defense, conceding 6 across the last two matches, though it still appears formidable:
Union Berlin coach, Urs Fischer, says:
The game will be a challenge, we have to be careful. We need a good day because Werder won't give us anything.
His team needs a win or to match or better Freiburg's result to qualify for Champions League, but Werder is under no pressure after already securing the next season's Bundesliga appearance by scoring consistently.
Werder only won once out of the last 11 matches but has scored in the last 12 matches in a row (17 goals total). The two best team scorers (Fullkrug and Ducksch) are available for this match.
Werder coach, Ole Werner, says:
We want to have fun and enjoy ourselves. Our opponent is very experienced and very strong at home.
I think Union Berlin is shook and is guaranteed to concede once (1.6 odds), but I'm willing to take my chances and go for more than triple odds.
Sporting coach, Ruben Amorim, announced a mixed lineup for the final round of Liga Portugal. He did emphasize his team will fight for the win today, but its table position is locked in and I don't expect trouncing. As for Vizela, its coach announced putting up a fight, which I take to mean enduring the first half without conceding.
Also, Sporting drew the first half of 10/16 league away matches this season.
Serbian Cup finals. Rain is expected and both teams announced defensive lineups and formations.
Getafe scored only 1 goal across the last five LaLiga away matches (5L) while making a total of 10 shots on target. Compare that to five LaLiga away matches prior to it: 5 goals and 19 shots on target (2D, 3L).
Getafe also hasn't scored in 4/5 last head-to-head matches.
Only a month ago everything seemed on the up for Valladolid, but now it has the worst form in LaLiga (5L), failing to score in the last two and conceding 14. Valladolid desperately needs points to avoid relegation, though it seems unlikely to get any vs Barcelona that finished with the week-long celebration following the title win vs Espanyol.
Valladolid coach, Paulo Pezzolano, says:
We have to improve. We have to have that courage and know that it still depends on us and show hierarchy and character on the field.
I think his appeals are too little, too late, especially considering that Xavi Hernandez, Barcelona coach, says:
Real Sociedad is a Champions League-tier team; they needed points and got them. [vs Valladolid] I intend to put out the best team possible to get a good result. We want to end the season on a high.
Roma is in poor form in Serie A (3D, 2L), failing to score in the last two (vs Inter and Bologna). This seems to be due to focus on Europa League and player injuries (Dybala in particular). Now that Roma secured the Europa League finals and Dybala is feeling better, I expect it to score, if not win, though today's opponent is no pushover.
After changing coaches mid-February, Salernitana significantly improved its performance. In 13 Serie A matches led by the new coach, Salernitana only lost twice (3W, 8D), scoring in 11. Those 17 points gathered are enough to guarantee survival in Serie A, but the management is now eyeing bigger prizes.
Salernitana coach, Paulo Sousa, says about the team plans:
I hope that together we can build a stable and ambitious future. Believing that you can compete against anyone is the greatest victory. We must have the ability to outdo ourselves every day and carry on a mentality that allows us to compete and win against anyone in order to continue growing.
As for Roma, he says:
Roma is a very difficult opponent with a very strong coach. We will have to be good at getting out of their pressure to attack the spaces where we can put them in difficulty.
While I do think regularly winning against the big Serie A boys is in the cards for Salernitana, I don't expect it to include today's match because of Salernitana's poor defensive record when playing away. It conceded in 6/7 matches under the new coach, only managing to shut out the worst Serie A team, Sampdoria.
Auxerre coach, Christophe Pelissier, says:
We owe ourselves and our fans revenge (referring to the 5:0 loss to PSG earlier in the season). I ask my players to make these three games more enterprising (in terms of attacking).
PSG coach, Christophe Galtier, says:
This will be a complicated match.
PSG is known for having shoddy defense and teams are especially motivated to score versus it, which makes me think Auxerre will score twice tonight.
Ajax is in poor form, netting only one win from the last 4 matches (1D, 2L), though that streak does include two matches vs PSV, an exceptionally strong team. That win was 2:3 vs already relegated Groningen that hasn't gotten a win since February (2D, 8L), which was also the last time it scored 2+ goals in a match (3:0 vs Excelsior).
Meanwhile, Utrecht broke the club record for away goals thanks to the league's best scorer, Douvikas, on average scoring 2 per away match. It has exceptional form (4W, 1L), with the one loss coming from the Eredivisie champion, Feyenoord (3:1).
In short, I think Ajax is a pale shadow of the titan it used to be and should struggle mightily against Utrecht that I expect capitalize on the rare opportunity to score a win vs Ajax, which it has only done 3 times in the past 15 head-to-head matches (2D, 10L).
Famalicao scored in 8/10 home matches and has scored in previous five head-to-head matches. Meanwhile, Porto still has theoretical chances of ending up the champion if Benfica loses twice in the final two rounds, so I expect 1:2 Porto win or a similar result.
Crvena Zvezda will play with a mixed lineup but one focused on defense. It also conceded only one goal across the last six matches. Today's match has no significance in terms of championship placement for Zvezda, but it wants to maintain its aura of invincibility.
Two players with a rich rivalry, with Medvedev having slightly weaker form and history on clay. Both players expressed respect for the opponent, which makes me think they'll play it safe, resulting in a long match where Tsitsipas will ultimately prevail.
Write up: Girona scored 2+ goals in the last four matches, including four vs Real Madrid. Meanwhile, Villareal conceded at least once in the past 7 matches in a row, dating back to early April.
Monaco failed to score in the last 3/4 matches. In the most recent match, vs Lille, Monaco attempted only one shot on target during the entire match.
Monaco will feature newly returned Wissam Ben Yedder, the top scorer of the team (7th in Ligue 1), but he also hasn't scored in 2 months.
Both coaches announced a defensive approach and a cautious play style.
Sevilla coach, Jose Mendilibar, says:
We have to respect Juventus. They are a massive club and few have what they do at their disposal. I don't think that they will give us control of possession, they are going to want to cause us problems with the ball. If they let us control the game, we will have to be patient.
Juventus coach, Massimiliano Allegri, says:
We, on our part, will have to be good at keeping them at bay while keeping calm ourselves, because the match will be very long and there will be many moments to be able to strike. Sevilla FC is going to have the drive of its fans, but we are ready knowing that the duel can last 120 minutes.
TSC Bačka Topola scored in 22/23 matches played in 2023. Previous three head-to-head matches had both teams score.
Crvena Zvezda coach, Miloš Milojević, says:
Compared to derbies we play versus Partizan, matches against TSC are genuine football. I expect both teams to want to enjoy the atmosphere and play.
He's referring to how derbies vs Partizan end up with many interruptions and few goals. I expect the opposite to happen today. TSC can score and has scored vs Crvena Zvezda, which I expect today as well.
Second leg. Milan plans to overturn the 2-goal deficit using its best scorer, Leao (absent from the first leg due to injury). A "rimonta" is unlikely, but I do expect Milan to at least score once, especially since Inter's coach announced a difficult match.
Inter coach, Simone Inzaghi, says:
Tomorrow is one of the biggest matches in Inter's history. We come into it with a deserved lead. We will come out and play to the best of our abilities. We are facing a team with some quality players, who won the Scudetto last year, so we have to be very careful. We have already got through a game like this against a strong team like Benfica, with the exact same advantage. It will be a difficult match.
He's referring to the Champions League quarterfinals, where Inter defeated Benfica 0:2 in the first leg and then scrambled to maintain the lead in the second (ended 3:3).
Milan lost the most recent match without scoring (2:0 to Spezia), but that to me signifies Milan players spared themselves for today's match.
Milan coach, Stefano Pioli, says:
Tomorrow, we'll be looking to change our season around: this match is massive and can be the difference. The most important thing is to score first and then it's a whole different ball-game.
A juggernaut with shaky defense and mixed lineup hosting the second worst team with newfound confidence.
Juventus is likely to rotate the squad because of the upcoming rematch with Sevilla (first match ended 1:1). A confirmed absentee is the first goalie, Szczesny. That won't help Juventus keep a clean sheet, which has only happened in 2/10 last matches dating back to early April.
Cremonese is in danger of relegation and desperately needs points. It is in solid form in Serie A (2W, 2D, 1L), scoring 5 goals across the five.
Espanyol is fighting to avoid relegation while Barcelona can win the title by winning the match. It's impossible to predict the winner or even goals, though 4/5 had at least one red card.
Barcelona coach, Xavi Hernandez, says:
It's important to control nerves, tension, emotions. I imagine it's going to be a tough match and derbies are always tense games. We're 200% ready.
This pick only counts red cards shown to players in the game during 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PSG coach, Christophe Galtier, says:
I expect a game where the opposite team will not let go. We will have to be very determined from the start of the match, so as to not let them settle over time.
Lens is the best home team in Ligue 1 (15W, 1D, 1L). Reims lost 3/4 of the most recent matches to nil, however the fourth match was a 1:0 win vs Lille.
The logic behind this pick is that Lens has plenty to fight for, while Reims is safe from relegation and should not put up much of a fight today.
Two cautious teams that announced a tactical approach to tonight's match. Both lost their most recent league matches (Fiorentina 1:0 vs Napoli; Basel 0:2 vs Zurich).
Basel coach, Heiko Vogel, says:
We'll make sure we're compact, but we also need the ball possession phases to relieve ourselves and create danger. It is important that we put pinpricks. I can imagine that it will be a tactical game.
Fiorentina coach, Vincenzo Italiano, says:
Tomorrow is a semifinal match, and a semifinal like the one with Cremonese. We have to try to play it with great intelligence, trying to take advantage of everything our opponents will give us and try to defend carefully. I hope that tomorrow we can put great difficulty on our opponent.
He's referring to the Coppa Italia semifinals matches played in April. Fiorentina won the first 0:2 and drew the second 0:0.
Factor X for this pick is Basel's discipline. That loss to Zurich was marred by horrible on-pitch behavior, netting Basel's players three direct red cards. If they start pulling similar antics tonight, there's no telling how the match will unfold.
Derby match where Inter has a moderate advantage thanks to dominant form and better track record in head-to-head matches.
In Serie A, Inter scored 14 goals across the last five matches, which is the best attacking form in the league (Fiorentina is second with 11 across five).
Out of the last five head-to-head matches Inter won 3 (1D, 1L), scoring 9 and conceding 3 throughout. A memorable head-to-head was played in January in Riyadh, which I chose as a pick on my website.
It was the Italian Super Cup finals, where based on the form and stats at the time it seemed Milan will surely score in each half. It did not. Inter took the early lead and ended up winning 0:3.
When asked to compare tonight's match with that one, Inter coach, Simone Inzaghi, says:
At the time we had a few problems, we didn't have Lukaku and Brozovic, now we don't have Skriniar and maybe Gosens, we strengthen in one department and weaken in another. In Riyadh we arrived with a lot of desire, the team played a great match, now we have to do the same, with the same attitude but over 180 minutes. There must be no fear but a lot of desire.
Based off what I saw back then and what I'm seeing now, I think Inter is the favorite and is capable of scoring twice.
Fatigued host versus a cautious guest, with both teams announcing the second leg as the deciding match.
Real Madrid always scores at home in the Champions League knockout stage matches. In the past 16 such matches dating back to the 2015–16 season, Real Madrid scored 32 goals (scored 1 goal in 7 matches and 2+ in 9). In short, Real Madrid scored at least twice in 56% of matches.
Manchester City coach, Pep Guardiola, says:
We played really good in both games [last season], but it was not enough. We are not here for revenge. The lesson we can learn is to learn a little bit what happened, get a good result, and perform well tomorrow to give us the opportunity to reach the final when we play in Manchester.
Real Madrid player, Toni Kroos, says:
We're playing at home and we'll be looking to attack and score goals. We have played a lot of games like this and I’m confident in our experience and in how we handle these games.
Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, says:
We want to gain a slight advantage for the return leg, which will be the decisive match.
I see this pick as essentially a coin flip with a 56% chance for heads that pays 2.6 times the stake, which is a wager I'll gladly take.
Partizan started clawing its way back to table position #2. Today it hosts a weak team decimated by stomach flu.
After a streak of 7 matches with only 1 win (1D, 5L) and 3 goals scored throughout, Partizan finally snagged a 1:3 win vs TSC Bačka Topola on May 1.
Novi Pazar has five losses to nil in a row, the most recent being 4:0 vs TSC Bačka Topola on May 4. Half the standard lineup has stomach flu, including the primary goalkeeper (Slavković) and 2/3 best scorers (Majdevac and Mijić).
Partizan won 4/5 of their most recent head-to-head matches when hosting to nil. Novi Pazar coach, Davor Berber, said he wants his team to not embarrass itself vs Partizan, which I read as parking the bus.
The best scorer of Troyes who made 30% of its League 1 goals this season. In the previous head-to-head (won by PSG 4:3 in October), he scored twice. Also, PSG is struggling with defense while even the weakest teams relish the chance to score against it.
Two teams that score most of their goals in second halves, which is when their defenses fall apart.
Werder's last five matches had 16/19 goals scored in second halves (84%). In Bayern's it's 10/13 (77%).
As for defenses, Werder was recently up 0:1 vs Schalke until 81' only to concede twice and lose the match 2:1. Bayern had a similar situation in a recent match vs Mainz — led 0:1 until 65' and conceded thrice to lose 3:1.
Werder will be playing without Bundesliga's best scorer, Fullkrug.
Girona scored over 1.5 goals in 4/5 last home matches, the most recent being a 4:2 win over Real Madrid on April 25. Mallorca played 8 away LaLiga matches in 2023, conceding 14 goals across 7.
Monza is in excellent form, with the highest points tally at this stage of the league of any newly promoted Serie A team within the last 100 years. 10 days ago, Monza played vs a solid team (Fiorentina) and managed to win 3:2 despite losing 0:2 inside the first 15 minutes of the match. Overall, Monza's form is among the best (3W, 1D, 1L) though the team suffers from unpredictability when hosting.
As for Roma, it is in pretty bad form as the away team (1W, 1D, 3L), scoring only 2 goals throughout. Besides that, Roma's top scorer, Paolo Dybala, is listed as "doubtful" in lineups due to ankle injury.
Euroleague quarterfinal playoffs. Best-of-5 format. Third match.
Partizan leads 2:0, with the second match being perhaps the most thorough dismantling of Real Madrid it has ever experienced at home. Its players were so frustrated that Lull provoked an outright brawl that resulted in Partizan's Punter and Lessort suspended and Exum injured (the one thrown on the ground by Yabusele's judo move). Two Real Madrid players were also suspended, Yabusele and Deck, though its bench is stacked with quality players so their absence won't be missed as much.
Despite the quality roster, Real Madrid is mentally in a bad spot and I have to wonder how much its players want to keep playing the series.
Real Madrid coach, Chus Mateo, says:
We have to be more united than ever on a very tricky court. I've seen a lot both with this group and with the club. For example, I've seen things that were considered impossible in the football team. There has never been a comeback from 0-2 down but we'll see. I have confidence in this group and if we can expect things from anyone, it's from them.
He's referring to 20.000 home fans that will create a deafening atmosphere. Whatever happens, the match is going to be an epic one and you shouldn't miss it.
Sevilla did not lose a match in April (5W, 2D) due to the new coach, Jose Mendilibar, who says:
We are going to press high. They are also going to want to cause us some problems. The idea is this, we won't be waiting on them to come at us. Yes, in this sense you're running a risk but I think both teams will be content this way.
Girona coach, Michel Sanchez, says:
It is necessary to be aggressive with the pressure and the ball, to have commitment. I really like Sevilla. They are an aggressive team but with sportsmanship.
PSV won four matches in a row against Ajax, scoring 2+ goals in each. The most recent win was 7 days ago (3:0).
Ajax coach, John Heitinga, says:
We know we have to do better. It's about continuing to defend and not be on the pitch with fear. We have to be a strong collective on Sunday. We are combative for sure.
PSV coach, Van Nistelrooij, says:
We know what it takes to beat Ajax. They have some quality players who are undoubtedly fully motivated to bounce back. So we need a repeat performance to win the Cup final, and preferably do even better.
Real Madrid played 4/5 last matches with under 2.5 goals total. Though those four matches were 2:0 wins, it appears there's some fatigue with Real Madrid players. They also have an upcoming Champions League match, which makes me think they will spare themselves to an extent today.
Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, says:
The analysis we made with the players after the Girona game was that the defensive side wasn't good enough. We have to focus on that in the next few games, especially tomorrow, and the players have taken that on board. We will approach tomorrow in a different way.
Strasbourg won 4/5 last home matches, scoring 2+ goals in each win. Prior to that, it needed 18 league home matches to get 4 wins. Meanwhile, Lyon conceded in 4/5 last league matches.
The latest head-to-head was played in January, with Strasbourg winning 1:2.
Athletic Bilbao is in top form (4W, 1D) and can still grab spot #5 or #6 in the table. Meanwhile, Sevilla needs points to secure the next LaLiga season. Its new coach nurtures an attacking style, which led to Sevilla scoring 13 goals across 6 matches he's in charge.
Athletic Bilbao coach, Ernesto Valverde, says:
It's a match in which both teams will have their opportunities. We want to take three points against a good opponent and continue our good run.
Sevilla coach, Jose Mendilibar, says:
I hope we start the game with organization and concentration. Right now, we are both sides that play a similar way, wanting to play in the opposition's half with a high defensive line.
170th derby. This matchup is typically stiff, low-scoring, and with plenty of interruptions.
Only 7/30 last head-to-head matches were over 2.5 goals total. In the last head-to-head, there were nearly 100 interruptions (corner kicks + throw ins + free kicks), compared to 60 either of these teams usually has in a match.
Partizan is in the worst table position at this stage of the competition in the past 34 years. That is accompanied by losing 4/5 last matches (scored only 2 goals throughout). Partizan coach, Igor Duljaj, says:
The heaviest burden is not in the legs but in the head. The point is to motivate yourself. We can't push fresh players into this situation; they need a good environment to grow in.
Crvena Zvezda coach, Miloš Milojević, says:
We showed in the last derby match that we can play 30–45 minutes with a cool head, now the goal is to expand that. We have the duty to make this match a celebration of the occasion.
The match he's referring to had his team score early on and then withdraw to defend the lead. Despite Crvena Zvezda's amazing form, I expect something similar here as well.
Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, recently complained that busy schedule hurts his players' health. He said:
It's too tight, with too many games. We have to look at the health of the players.
His complaint seems justified when you look at the list of absentees for today's match — Benzema, the best Real Madrid scorer, is out due to a knock, but Thibaut Courtois, the standard goalie, is also out due to stomach problems. Instead of the latter, Ancelotti will field the 20-year-old Mario de Luis that's the standard goalie of Real Madrid B.
Those absences should make the match easier for Girona, which is in excellent home form (4W, 1L, scored 11, conceded 4).
V. Guimaraes has played 5 league matches without winning. That could change tonight because it is in solid home form this season. Out of 14 league matches played at home, it only lost 3 (8W, 3D).
Sporting is having trouble scoring, which led to it winning only 1/5 last matches (3D, 1L). Its coach, Ruben Amorim, says:
We are having more difficulties in getting the right results, but if we look at the last few games we have always played well and created chances. We have to improve our effectiveness. This will be a very dangerous game; everyone knows what it is like to play in Guimaraes.
A promising outsider hosting a legend in shambles.
Nothing is going Partizan's way in 2023. It's been eliminated from nearly every competition in the most embarrassing way. The only goal remaining in 2023 is fighting for league position #4 that leads to Europa Conference League qualifiers. To do that, it has to snatch points from FK Čukarički, which seems like mission impossible.
FK Čukarički won 5/5 of its last matches, scoring 10 and conceding 2 goals. Meanwhile, Partizan lost 4/5 of its last matches (includes one friendly), scoring 3 and conceding 7. The last head-to-head was 3 days ago, with FK Čukarički winning 1:0.
FK Čukarički coach, Dušan Kerkez, says:
These playoff matches aren't pretty. I expect a similar match to the one we just played. Convincing players that they can beat Partizan is a process we've been working on.
Partizan coach, Igor Duljaj, says:
It's not easy playing the same rival twice in 4 days. Even if we had won, it would have been hard to prepare the team for the task. There are no more excuses and now we'll see who's worthy of wearing the Partizan jersey.
First round of the championship playoff. Crvena Zvezda has a commanding 20-point lead from the preliminary stage, needing only a point from today's match to secure the title.
TSC Bačka Topola is 2nd in the table and has an impressive track record — it won 7/11 competitive matches in 2023 (2D, 2L), scoring in each match for a total of 18 goals throughout. That kind of performance gives it a good chance of securing a Champions League qualifier spot.
TSC Bačka Topola coach, Žarko Lazetić, says:
We're aware that Crvena Zvezda keeps winning and hasn't lost [in the league] at home arena since 2017. It's my team's obligation to compete, not give up hope, and give its maximum.
Crvena Zvezda coach, Miloš Milojević, says:
We're always going for the win and that will be the case this time as well. I don't think our opponent will be rushing us but I do expect it trying to punish our mistakes and take three points. I like what its coach has done with the team.
2nd best scorer of TSC Bačka Topola, Ratkov, won't be available today.
PSG coach, Christophe Galtier, says:
We will have to start this game properly to give them no hope, but also to our direct opponents who are still hoping, because the title is not yet secured. I have no doubt that they will be at 150%, without any pressure of result, so I think it will be a very open game.
No significant changes since the first leg.
Both teams won away matches in their domestic leagues with 0:2. Marcus Rashford traveled with the team but his involvement or fitness are uncertain. Intense defending in the first leg led to the injury of Lisandro Martinez, a key Manchester United defense player.
My rationale for this pick is that Sevilla is much more patient and experienced in high-stakes matches. As we saw in the first leg, 10 minutes of confusion can cost you the game, which can happen here as well.
Both teams are in poor form but Inter players seem to be nervous and infighting, which could spell disaster for the team.
Inter coach, Filippo Inzaghi, says:
This is the second half of a huge tie. We have the lead but we know what our opponents can do. It'll be a tough game; we need to work as a unit.
Benfica coach, Roger Schmidt, says:
We have to play with tactical balance, patience, motivation and belief that it is possible to turn things around. We are obliged to score goals or else we are out of the Champions League.
I think Benfica is capable of scoring two goals, which could mean it actually going through.
Celta Vigo had its last three matches end with over 3.5 goals total, while Mallorca had its last match end 3:3. The last head-to-head hosted by Celta Vigo ended 4:3 (March 2022).
Roma has the tightest home defense in Serie A, conceding only 9 goals across 14 matches. In the last five home matches, Roma won 4 to nil.
Udinese is in a pretty bad shape as an away team (1W, 1D, 3L). In those matches it scored only two goals.
Clash of two title contenders. PSG is in mediocre home form (3W, 2L), losing two without scoring. Meanwhile, Lens scored in 17/18 matches played in 2023, scoring 32 goals throughout. In the last 5 head-to-head, PSG won only once and Lens scored every time.
PSG coach, Christophe Galtier, says:
Lens are a team with a very good defense, but they are also a team that attacks in numbers. In the first game, we found it difficult to break through their pressure and we were caught off guard (Lens won 3:1 in January). We'll have to be able to get back into position quickly to contain the opposition's transitions. We know that they are one of the best teams in this league.
I think PSG will try to avoid going the third home match in a row without scoring, which should open it up to Lens counter-attacks.
Panathinaikos has nothing to play for in this match except to test out different formations for the national league.
Panathinaikos caretaker coach, Christos Serelis, says:
It is a very bad season for Panathinaikos. Under no circumstances should the team be indifferent. It's a game that can help us in the Basket League playoffs.
Panathinaikos player, Mateusz Ponitka, says:
We are sad, definitely sad because I think none of us expected this season. We have one more game and I hope we can show that we deserved more.
Meanwhile, Partizan cements the 6th position by winning, which it has done with supreme confidence, winning 15/20 last Euroleague matches (the best winrate in that stretch in the entire competition).
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
We consider Panathinaikos the most serious possible opponent and that's how we prepared. We'll play with the desire to perform and win in front of the packed arena.
Panathinaikos has the second worst away record in Euroleague this season (3W, 13L), on average losing 83:74. Tonight it will play without Paris Lee, a regular starter who averages 11 points in Euroleague this season, which should result in a ~20 point spread.
Manchester United will be without its best scorer, Marcus Rashford (out for "a few games" due to groin injury), who scored ~35% of all goals for the team this season.
Erik ten Hag, Manchester United coach, says:
They have a big reputation winning the Europa League. If we want to beat them, we have to play our best football and everyone has to deliver their best performance.
Sevilla recently got a new coach, Jose Mendilibar, who says:
Our opponent will respect us because of what this club has achieved in the competition.
Sevilla player, Ivan Rakitić, says:
It's our competition, if we approach games with excitement nobody can beat us. The team is doing very well, training with a lot of excitement before playing a big match.
Chelsea is struggling domestically, being at 11th place and with 29 goals scored in 30 rounds, which is the worst club result in the past 100 years. Chelsea hasn't scored in the last three matches (all in English Premier League).
David Alaba, Real Madrid player, says:
We never underestimate our opponents. We know they have a great squad. We have to focus on putting pressure on them from the first minute.
Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea goalie, says:
We are respectful of the competition. If you only have a poor 20-minute spell over the course of a tie – or even less – you can be knocked out.
I think Chelsea will keep a stiff upper lip here, prioritize EPL, and try to go through in the second leg.
The only problem is with Real Madrid. It is playing hot-cold, where it can draw 0:0 or win 6:0 or lose 2:3 or... There's little consistency in Real Madrid's game. However, for tonight I expect a win with a two-goal margin.
Manchester City scores like crazy (33 goals across the last 10 matches). I watched Bayern players give their thoughts on tonight's match and they seemed unsure of themselves.
Thomas Muller, Bayern player, said:
Definitely the biggest draw we could've got. They're just an extremely solid team.
Leon Goretzka, Bayern player, said:
Excellent individual players and a very good coach. They're definitely a good team.
Joshua Kimmich, Bayern player, said:
Definitely one of the toughest draws we could've got.
Julian Nagelsmann, former Bayern coach, said:
I think it goes without saying it'll be extremely tough. I'm drawing a lot of energy and excitement from this demanding challenge.
Bayern tends to play two distinctly different halves (loses one, wins the other). We could possibly see some crazy action in the second half.
Final round of Serbian Super Liga, with three teams vying for positions 2–4 in the table. Two of them are Čukarički and Partizan.
Čukarički coach, Dušan Kerkez, says:
We'll give all we have to get a positive result. I expect a good match but a more cautious one compared to the last we played (Partizan won 3:2).
Čukarički scored 13 goals in the last 5 competitive home matches while Partizan seems to have overcome the scoring crisis it was in (scored in the last five competitive matches in a row).
Final round of the primary league stage. Crvena Zvezda is on top of the table with a 20-point lead but has started leaking goals (conceded in the last 6 competitive matches).
Today's opponent wants to show competence and won't be hoisting the white flag. Radnički coach, Dejan Joksimović, says:
I expect us to put up a fight and make the other team nervous.
Casa Pia has a solid home form in the league (3W, 1D, 1L) while Sporting played a goalless draw in its last match (away to Gil Vicente), which could indicate problems in conversion.
Ruben Amorim, Sporting coach, says:
We have to be much better in front of goal. Playing against Casa Pia AC is always difficult, because they're a team who concede few goals.
Sporting also has an upcoming match vs Juventus, which could make Ruben spare his best players vs Casa Pia.
PSG is in a bad streak, losing two without scoring. Nice lost only one out of the last 15 matches (8W, 6D). I would normally play 1X but this time I'll dare to try an outright home win.
Freiburg lost only two of the last 10 matches (twice vs Juventus), which were also when it didn't score in those 10. Bayern is in pretty bad shape despite the recent 4:2 win vs Borussia Dortmund, whose goalie had some Karius moments.
Inter barely avoided defeat last time out thanks to a stoppage time penalty but is still in poor form (2D, 3L). Salernitana is in much better form (4D, 1L) and should resist Inter today.
Inter is in a slump and hasn't scored in the last three. Juventus is in excellent form and won the last 5 while keeping a clean sheet in 4, which also includes a win over Inter (0:1 on March 19).
Both teams need points here — Valencia to avoid relegation and Rayo Vallecano to vie for position #6 in the table. Head-to-head history shows both are capable of scoring (the most recent was won by Rayo Vallecano 2:1 in September).
A matchup where PSG historically doesn't score many goals (162 goals in 105 head-to-head matches). Seeing how PSG has shoddy defense recently and Lyon is in decent form, I'm partial to a draw but will hedge my bet with an X2.
Bayern won only 5/10 last Bundesliga matches (3D, 2L), prompting the management to dismiss the coach.
New Bayern coach, Thomas Tuchel, has tempered expectations since he says:
We won't be champions if we win nor will we write off the title if we don't win. It's certainly going to be a fierce contest.
Borussia Dortmund won 9/10 last Bundesliga matches (1D). Its coach, Edin Terzić, announced a defensive approach. He says:
We've achieved a lot. We want to protect it.
This pick is not an April Fools' joke!
Eintracht is in a crisis, losing the two most recent competitive matches without scoring. Bochum is on an upward trend, winning two without conceding.
In their head-to-head history there were 63 Bundesliga matches. Bochum won 25 and Eintracht won 23 (15 were tied). The latest head-to-head was also won by Bochum (3:0 in October).
Both teams have an identical recent LaLiga form (1D, 2L) and many players who were away for international appearances. Based on coach statements I think Osasuna benefited a bit more from the break, is overall a bit better team, and will win today's match. The last head-to-head was won by Osasuna (1:0 in January).
Both teams tend to score and their head-to-head history shows the trend of over 2.5 goals total.
Another interesting tidbit for tonight's match is that Crvena Zvezda players emphasize stopping Valencia's Dubljević as a key part of their strategy. In the last head-to-head (played January), Dubljević was at 2 points and Crvena Zvezda won 75:77.
Crvena Zvezda had to postpone a recent ABA League match due to mass player illness.
Crvena Zvezda coach, Duško Ivanović, says:
Their health is getting better. Some are still exhausted and are feeling the consequences.
Crvena Zvezda player, Filip Petrušev, says:
Defense is key. We need to stop their transition plays, close the paint, and control rebounds.
Valencia coach, Alex Mumbru, says:
We'll see if we can establish an offensive rhythm because that's been a big issue for us lately.
This pick does not include overtime.
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
They play like a team and with extraordinary defense. It's a team made for Final Four.
I think Partizan is feeling a little bit of fatigue after so many matches and will lose tonight's match.
Israel is the clear underdog here, which makes me think it's going to park the bus and try to eke out a goalless draw.
Poland seems to be in a crisis, losing the most recent match 3:1 vs Czech Republic. Even so, Lewandowski in the attack should be able to produce at least 2 goals for Poland. If Albania pitches in with one, that's even better.
Montenegro coach, Miodrag Radulović, says:
We're in positive momentum after the Bulgaria win (0:1 three days prior) but my players got spent. We definitely want to win but won't get ahead of ourselves.
Serbia will field the strongest lineup and go for a win, which should result in goals starting from the first half.
Moldova did not concede vs Liechtenstein and Andorra in the last 10 and it scored in the last 9/10. Czech Republic boasts a similar trend — did not score vs Spain and Portugal and did not concede only vs Faroe Islands.
Though San Marino tends to get trounced by everyone, it did manage to hold off teams of similar strength as Slovenia in recent history. For example, lost 0:1 to Iceland, 1:0 to Malta, and 2:0 to Estonia in 2022.
Liechtenstein is a pathetic team that hasn't scored at home since March 2021 — vs Iceland. If Liechtenstein can score against any team, I expect it to be vs Iceland.
I think Denmark is the clear favorite here but might concede. Kazakhstan tends to score regularly at home and has done so in four home matches in a row.
Partizan played a tough match vs Olympiacos less than two days ago, giving it good chances for going through to the next stage in Euroleague. This is a regional tournament with less importance, with another Euroleague match coming up in 2 days and another 2 days after that. Also, Cedevita Olimpija has three wins in a row vs Partizan, which shows its players aren't afraid of fighting back.
If Partizan wins with 10 or more points difference, this pick loses. All other scorelines win. This pick does not include overtime.
Croatia hasn't lost any of the last 35 qualifying matches. Wales lost Gareth Bale, who was the most prolific scorer for the national team. His best replacement, Brennan Johnson, has a groin injury.
Israel had last 5/5 matches where both scored and the goal total was over 2.5. Kosovo had last 4/5 where both scored and 3/5 with the goal total over 2.5.
Both teams are at full strength, save Olympiacos coach being absent due to the virus. Both average 85 points per match, which should result in this pick winning by a few points.
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
Probably the toughest possible opponent. Olympiacos players build up to every shot they make. We will have to play defense throughout their entire attack.
Olympiacos assistant coach, Christos Pappas, says:
The game with Partizan is not going to be easy. Any one opponent of such a team should impose the rhythm on both ends of the floor. That means we have to play our game and be mentally ready to deal with their physical game.
One player mentioned in particular is Olympiacos' Vezenkov, MVP of the competition. It seems Partizan doesn't have a solution for him, which is another reason I'm going with an over.
Serbia regularly scores in the first half. In the last three matches, Serbia scored 5 first-half goals (1 vs USA, 2 vs Switzerland, and 2 vs Cameroon).
Way too much political influence in B&H football makes me unwilling to support B&H tonight.
The previous coach, Ivaylo Petev, was dismissed to install a politically fit coach, Faruk Hadžibegić. The new coach has already made at least one baffling defensive choice (not using Servette's Miroslav Stevanović, the best midfielder available), which led him to shuffle players around to compensate. Some other top-tier players won't be available either (Pjanić and Kolašinac).
B&H captain, Edin Džeko, says:
The match won't be easy at all, I expect many duels and running. Chances are 50:50 for our win.
Iceland coach, Arnar Vidarsson, says:
We're happy with the group because all teams are similar in quality. I am aware it won't be easy but we're excited.
Past B&H results, fan support, and team morale were painstakingly built over 2 years by Petev. From what I'm seeing, the new coach doesn't understand any of those things, let alone how to improve them.
Individual B&H player quality might prevail but I think team cohesion gives more consistent results, which is why I'll be favoring Iceland tonight.
Lietkabelis is a strong team (9W, 1L) that scores 85 at home per match in Eurocup. Bursaspor loses a lot (3W, 7L) but also scores a lot (80 per away match in Eurocup).
Just looking at the averages, the match should be right on the cusp but I discovered that Bursaspor got Andrew Andrews back. He was seen training with Bursaspor for today's match. He scores 14 points a match and should play today, pushing the pick across the threshold.
You can also wait for this pick live and see if Andrew Andrews is on the court before committing.
Fenerbahce has only lost one home match in 2023 (8W, 1D/W). On average, each of those wins was with a 12-point spread (includes the domestic league).
Fenerbahce player, Marko Gudurić, says:
We will play a very important game for us. I can say that this match will be the most important game of the season for us.
Fenerbahce coach, Dimitris Itoudis, says:
This match will be a must-win for us and we have to be ready for it.
Today's opponent is Olimpia Milano, which has a few injured players. Olimpia Milano coach, Ettore Messina, says:
We face one of the best teams in the competition. Because of absences we lost some of the rhythms that allowed us to win six straight games. However, in Istanbul, we want to play the best possible game, keep competing as we have always done, and try to improve regardless who is going to be out there.
Xabi Alonso, Bayer Leverkusen coach, says:
We know it's always difficult against Bayern. They have incredibly high quality on the pitch week after week and face their opponents with intensive play at the highest level. [We want] to carry forward and use the momentum from the last matches. [We need to] play with maturity and emotional control.
For how he feels coaching against his former team, he says:
I had great experiences there and fond memories of my three years. The first time playing against them as a coach will be nice. Hopefully with a smile after the game as well.
The way I'm reading his statements, he wants his players to stay disciplined and behave, even if they're behind, so he doesn't lose by a huge scoreline and get embarrassed in front of his former teammates. That should mean he's going to prioritize defending rather than attacking.
Bayern coach, Julian Nagelsmann, says:
It’s about beating [Bayer] Leverkusen. We can’t sit back and relax.
So, Bayern wants a win and Bayer Leverkusen wants to not be a pushover but knows it can't parry Bayern's attack, which should result in a low-scoring match with a high chance of Bayern win and a fairly low chance of Bayer Leverkusen win or draw.
You can also wait for the first half to end before deciding to play this pick. Bayern is Bundesliga's top scorer in the first half (47 goals in 45 matches). If there are no goals in the first half, I think this pick has high chances of winning.
Bochum is in relegation battle, with the most recent match a win vs Koln (0:2). Thomas Letsch, Bochum coach, said:
We had fun defending our goal. I was very happy about that.
For today's match, he says:
It's nice that we can play against a Champions League team. We are looking forward to it. The defense will always be the foundation. [We] need to stay sharp. We are aware that it will be a fight to the finish.
Meanwhile, RB Leipzig lost in Champions League to Manchester City, which for many of its players was the biggest loss of their careers (7:0). That's a mental barrier they need to cross to go back to winning ways, which I'm not sure their coach realizes how tough it is.
RB Leipzig coach, Marco Rose, says for the defeat:
I can only speak for myself, but day after, waking up, was terrible. The morning after that was already a lot better and this morning it was already really good. This [defeat] should be out of mind by the final training session today at the latest.
For Bochum, he says:
It will be a fight that we have to take on. It will be a completely different game to the one in Manchester. I expect that we will be ready.
He's probably expecting a tough, low-scoring game where Bochum defends tooth and nail until the final whistle. One interesting stat is that Bochum has 0 draws in the past 17 Bundesliga matches, which is the Bundesliga current no-draw streak record, so one might be coming up today. For the sake of hedging my pick I chose the 1X double chance in case of an upset.
Both teams are in poor form but I think Werder Bremen is slightly favored here due to being able to score more thanks to Fullkrug, the top scorer of Bundesliga.
Also, Borussia Monchengladbach conceded 13 goals across the last 5 matches, which is the worst defending form in Bundesliga. I haven't watched any of its matches but I did notice the club news mention the fact that its best goalkeeper, Jonas Omlin, has hip problems that made him sit out the most recent match vs RB Leipzig (Borussia lost 3:0). Even when he's playing, his team struggles to keep a clean sheet.
These two teams played 106 times in the Bundesliga, with Werder scoring 161 times (1.6 per match). The most recent head-to-head was won by Werder Bremen (5:1 in October 2022).
Any result is possible here but I think Werder Bremen should score at least two goals, which might also result in it winning the match.
Two evenly matched teams, with Sporting showing a bit more confidence and determination to go through or at least fight tooth and nail in regular time. The first leg ended 2:2, with both teams winning in their domestic leagues by the same scoreline (3:0) in the interim.
Mikel Arteta, Arsenal coach, says:
It's a really tough opponent [but] we're looking to win.
When asked by the press if Europa League is a distraction from the domestic league, he says:
No. We haven't had big European nights for three years due to COVID especially. (...) We'll build a really good atmosphere and enjoy it. Our supporters will be there against a really good team that is going to put a big challenge in front of us.
Ruben Amorim, Sporting coach, says:
We will be prepared and very confident. We are going to London with the aim of going through. We're going to play our game and try to make the opposition nervous.
Beware of Arsenal moneyline bets! As English teams tend to do, Arsenal prioritizes the domestic league and won't push to win at any cost. That might mean both teams settling for a draw in regular time, which Sporting seems ready for.
Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, says:
We're going to play an open game and produce our best attacking football. We'll have to attack and defender (sic) well, but we're not only thinking about defending, we're more focused on going forward.
Real Madrid player, Antonio Rudiger, says:
We have to give our fans something to be happy about and we have to build confidence too. Against Liverpool we have to find the right balance between defending and attacking.
Liverpool coach, Jurgen Klopp, says:
If there's only a one percent chance, I would like to give it a try. We're here to play an extremely strong opponent and try to win the game. If we can surprise ourselves in a negative way we should be able to surprise ourselves in a positive way as well.
I don't expect many goals in this match. I think Real Madrid is going to score 2 times tops and defend the result to prevent the repeat of the first leg. As always, established English teams prioritize the domestic league so I think Liverpool will go through the motions but not much more.
Porto is shook by the first leg loss to Inter (1:0). Since then Porto conceded 5 goals across three matches, which is the same number as it conceded across 16 matches prior to that.
Still, Porto scores regularly at home (scored in 18/20 last home matches) so I expect goals on both sides. The safer option is "over 2.5 goals total" at 2.20.
Sheriff lost the first leg vs Nice (0:1), with the second coming up in 3 days. It still has a chance to go through but today it has to deal with Balti, who has only played 1 match in 2023 but seems a formidable opponent. My idea is that Sheriff will half-ass the match vs Balti by sparing the best players, which should translate into not winning today.
Split is in tremendous form, losing only to Partizan (4W) and even that was by one point. It has never defeated SC Derby but I think it has the quality to do it today.
Robert Downey Jr. said in Tropic Thunder (2003) that the recipe for winning an Academy Award is:
You never go full retard, man.
He was referring to the fact Best Picture is awarded to films that portray the underprivileged (poor widows, half-retarded, autistic, and deaf people) but not in a way that makes them seem like losers.
Looking back, Best Picture winners can also convey some kind of environmental message or portray indigenous peoples as oppressed (Dances with Wolves (1990) is a great example). I think Avatar: Way of Water has a good chance of winning Best Picture because of the anti-whaling plot thread and the oppressed natives narrative.
In any case, Best Picture nominees for 2023 are:
I think the first five won't win Best Picture because they don't deliver the bleeding-heart message promoted by Hollywood. I watched The Banshees of Inisherin and it's a bit too fecking Irish to be relatable to the average American viewer, with the main character also going full retard.
That leaves four movies. If we assume they have equal chances of winning Best Picture, that gives Avatar a 25% chance of netting 120x the stake amount. It is a cultural phenomenon and a spectacular nature documentary that I would gladly watch again, which might make me biased but so be it.
Partizan's crisis is deepening. Its top scorer, Ricardo Gomes, is suspended for today's match. The second, Bibras Natcho, has only scored once in 2023 (from a penalty spot on March 8) and the third, Queensy Menig, twice. Combined, the three account for over 50% of Partizan's league goals. There's simply nobody left to score goals for Partizan except one promising reserve player (Samed Baždar) who isn't given a chance due to young age.
The latest Partizan coach, Igor Duljaj, says for the psychological crisis his team is in:
It's when the match starts that my boys lock up and spin their wheels. I know the fan boycott affects them. It's a stressful situation but they need to learn to live and play with it. I'd prefer to use young players when the atmosphere is better for them.
He believes hard work will bring positive results, but I don't see any hints it's going to happen today. If you're feeling cheeky, boost this pick with an "under 2.5 goals total".
With elimination from Champions League PSG only has the Ligue 1 title as the consolation prize, but I don't think it will win easily thanks to the leaky defense and lazy attackers.
Brest coach, Eric Roy, says:
This team is capable of doing great things!
I expect goals on both sides and possibly the kind of drama we saw vs Lille (4:3, Messi scored the winning goal in stoppage time).
Panathinaikos has been struggling to score points in Euroleague this season, being the second worst in scoring 2-pointers (49.1%) and free throws (73.2%). After losing to Olympiakos (81:65) on February 18, Panathinaikos installed an interim coach who got only 1 win (3L) and that versus the very last team in the Greek Basket League.
Panathinaikos interim coach, Christos Serellis, seems to have trouble motivating his boys to play because he says:
We can't act like we don't care. We need to be in the game from the first to the final moment.
Crvena Zvezda coach, Duško Ivanović, says:
The most important part is that my boys give everything they've got, especially in defense.
Panathinaikos has nothing to play for except to save face, while Crvena Zvezda is much more motivated and needs wins to enter the Euroleague playoffs. I think Crvena Zvezda will shut out Panathinaikos, who typically gives up in the second half. This pick does not include overtime.
I paid attention to Sheriff's performance during both legs vs Partizan. I think Sheriff is the dark horse of the Europa Conference League primarily because it has the mental fortitude to overcome setbacks and losses.
Olimpia coach, Ettore Messina, says:
A very high-level defensive game will be essential for us and it will be equally important to control our board against the best offensive rebounder in the competition, Matthias Lessort.
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
We need strength, energy, and wits to give us a chance to win this match. The travel took its toll but it is what it is.
On average, these two teams score 72.9 and 84.9 points respectively in Euroleague this season. If they just play to their averages this pick will miss, but I expect a tactical match with long attacks and dedicated defending that should bring the total points count well under 151.5.
I expect the final result to be around 70:75. This pick does not include overtime.
Second leg. Mbappe is a prolific scorer, averaging slightly under 1 goal per match (at least going by his Ligue 1 performance). He played injured in the first leg and still managed to score a goal (disallowed for offside).
I expect PSG to go all in tonight, which should result in an open match with goals on both sides and Mbappe scoring at least once.
Crvena Zvezda coach, Miloš Milojević, was not happy that his team only scored once vs Partizan. He says:
We have the quality to do better. We've been working on the psychological aspect of play for 3 months.
With the league title all but secured he wants to use the upcoming matches to fine-tune his team for European competitions. He will use junior players he thinks can bring some energy to the team. Crvena Zvezda top scorer, Katai, received a knock vs Partizan and will be benched unless there's a dire need for it.
He also mentions Liverpool's recent thrashing of Man. Utd (7:0):
I wish today's match ended in our favor with a similar scoreline. To have such a spectacle we need the audience, the play conditions, and quality players.
Meanwhile, FK Bačka Topola has lost only one competitive match in 2023 (3W, 1D). Its top scorer, Jovanović, is suspended but its coach, Žarko Lazetić, announces his boys will be fighting:
It's an honor and pleasure to play this match in front of the packed stands. I hope for a spectacle. Crvena Zvezda is certainly a level above us but we'll give it our best to fight and keep up.
Mega Basket hasn't played since February 15. Its coach, Marko Barać, says:
Our play efficiency largely depends on how well we've trained, which is why this match will be somewhat difficult.
Mornar coach, Mihailo Pavićević, says:
We need to play quality defense to have a chance at winning today.
I expect Mornar to keep up until the 4th quarter, at which point it usually starts losing steam. The end result should be around 85:75.
Betis is on a scoring streak in La Liga (scored 6 in 3 last matches). Real Madrid had some Loris Karius moments in the past couple matches, so I expect it to concede at least once tonight.
Real Madrid coach, Carlo Ancelotti, says:
It’ll be a tough game and we'll do everything we can to get the win. We've scored the most goals in LaLiga, we don’t have a problem in attack.
Be careful with Real Madrid moneyline bets here.
Serbian derby that would normally decide the winner of the Superleague. This year, there is no contest because Partizan is in dreadful condition:
Partizan ex-coach, Gordan Petrić, said on February 27:
I lost the locker room. Players are talking back to me. Maybe there's a way to do some shock therapy on them in the 4 days until the derby.
Referring to the fact fans are boycotting Partizan due to poor performance, he said:
There were few people on the stands so you could hear everything. They have the right to comment, they paid to attend.
New Partizan coach, Igor Duljaj, says:
Sometimes the shock therapy works, sometimes it doesn't. I hope to get a good result and good performance. It's hard to change something in two days.
Meanwhile, Crvena Zvezda has 3W, 1D in competitive matches in 2023. All wins were with a 2+ goal difference. Its coach, Miloš Milojević, says:
We have a duty to our fans to justify their expectations and keep winning.
I think this is going to be a disaster for Partizan. If the odds don't suit you, go with a handicap win of your choosing.
Barcelona is having a huge crisis (lost two in a row) and its top three scorers, Lewandowski, Pedri, and Dembele, are out. Another Barcelona scorer, Ansu Fati, had knee issues before the Almeria match (February 26). I expect a Real Madrid win here.
Đoković says:
The injury has been taken care of. I am almost at 100%.
Sporting coach, Ruben Amorim, says:
We're going to present a strong team. We anticipate a difficult game, it's the third this week.
Estoril lost all four away league matches in 2023 but all were 1:0 or 2:0. Though it has a new coach, I'm expecting a similar result here as well.
Porto's striker, Galeno, won't appear in this match. The second one, Evanilson, is doubtful (did not train with the team yesterday), and the third, Taremi, has only scored 2 goals in the last 10 appearances. Those three account for 50% of all Porto's goals.
It's quite possible Porto has a low-scoring draw with Gil Vicente, which might mean something like 1:1. I'm going with the double chance pick for just in case.
PSG is in a serious crisis (2W, 3L). It has been knocked out of French Cup by the title challenger, Marseille, and is hanging by a thread in Champions League. However, Mbappe is finally back. He is the most significant factor in whether PSG wins or not.
PSG coach, Christophe Galtier, says:
I don't think the title will be decided on Sunday. There's a lot of games to go, but a Paris Saint-Germain victory would be welcome. We'll have to raise our game and be better than we have been in recent weeks. I have players with a lot of pride, and they still have that Coupe game in mind.
Despite his cool attitude, I think he's sweating bullets because he realizes this is a must-win match for PSG. Marseille will play with the strongest squad, which should mean goals on both sides.
Borussia Dortmund is the clear favorite here but I don't think it will necessarily win. It has two tough matches coming up (vs RB Leipzig and 2nd leg vs Chelsea) and seems to be underestimating Hoffenheim. Also, one of its top scorers, Moukoko, is injured and won't play today.
Meanwhile, Hoffenheim is struggling to avoid relegation but has scored in 9/11 home Bundesliga matches this season. Its coach, Pellegrino Matarazzo, says:
We'll give everything to ensure that our performances also translate into results. We'll approach the game with full power and energy. The game can of course be a turning point, because not many people will believe in us. Every run ends at some stage – in both directions. We want to seize this opportunity.
He's referring to Borussia Dortmund winning 8/8 of its competitive matches in 2023 and Hoffenheim not winning any.
Borussia Dortmund coach, Edin Terzić, says:
We're aware of the tight games against Hoffenheim. They can be very dangerous. We're sure it'll be an intense game.
I think Hoffenheim will fight tooth and nail here, which should translate into scoring at least once. If Borussia Dortmund keeps up the pace, this pick should easily win.
Two evenly matched teams with streaks and stats that indicate a draw here.
While Mainz is stronger, I think it's not strong enough to overcome today's opponent, meaning both will settle for a draw.
Lille conceded only 2 goals across the last 5 home Ligue 1 matches. Brest scored only 1 goal across the last 5 away Ligue 1 matches. Lille does have a tradition of struggling vs Brest but is in the best home form since December 2019.
Monaco scores about 2.5 goals a match in Ligue 1. Bayer can score too but loses due to leaky defense (conceded 6 goals in its last two matches, 2:3 vs Mainz and 2:3 vs Monaco).
Monaco coach, Philippe Clement, said yesterday:
No, I won’t make tomorrow’s team based on the Derby (vs Nice on February 26). It doesn’t change anything for me that we won, because it’s just a one-goal advantage. We have to play our game, our football, to win this game.
Bayer Leverkusen coach, Xabi Alonso, says:
All the players are absolutely ready to fight for victory tomorrow. We definitely want to go through to the next round!
Monaco doesn't need to win to qualify but I think it will. Bayer Leverkusen's top scorer, Diaby, has a "small muscle injury" but is with the squad. I expect plenty of goals with moderate chances of Monaco winning that depend on Diaby's fitness. The safer option is over 3.5 goals total.
I found an interesting analysis of how Haaland transformed the way Manchester City plays (ESPN article titled "Why Erling Haaland holds Manchester City back in Premier League").
In short, he's there to help the team win Champions League versus teams that dominate possession by exploiting their mistakes (a great example of this is 1:3 win vs Arsenal). On the other hand, that style of play makes Manchester City concede more and neutralizing Haaland leaves the team toothless.
Emil Forsberg, RB Leipzig player, says:
Erling is a fantastic player and scores plenty of goals. It’s tough to completely take him out of the game.
Marco Rose, RB Leipzig coach, says:
It will be important to get on the ball and not to be chasing it all night. We have to be willing to work hard and enjoy defending, closing gaps and stopping Manchester City’s play.
I think Guardiola set the perfect trap for RB Leipzig. He will let go of the ball and wait for mistakes. Though his team might concede, I think it will come out on top. Another reason for this pick is that RB Leipzig will be without its top scorer, Nkunku.
Liverpool is in bad form, winning only 3 matches (2D, 4L) vs fairly weak opponents in 2023. Real has 9 wins (2D, 3L) and strikes me as a much more organized team that can dominate with ease.
Real Madrid coach, Ancelotti, brought his best players to this match. He says:
We're in for an intense game with lots of pressure. It'll be a game where you don't get a second to think because they press so well. We know that very well and we're ready for it.
Liverpool coach, Klopp, says:
We need two super games to go through. If we don't play our best we don't have a chance. Real Madrid doesn't have to play their best to still have a chance.
Another reason for this pick is that Liverpool is 8th in EPL. English clubs always prioritize EPL because it's so much more rewarding (relegation from EPL gives 5x the money of winning Champions League). I think Liverpool will put in some due effort to save face but will ultimately lose this match and the 2nd leg to focus on EPL.
Middle Jutland Derby. This is the first match for Viborg after the winter break; Midtjylland already played 2 cup and 1 Europa League matches. Viborg is in exceptional form (14W, 1D), though its coach, Jacob Friis, warns:
It is always a bit special with premiership matches when you are not yet in a match rhythm and do not quite have the feeling with ourselves and the other teams, but I expect a difficult match, as it often is in a close Superliga. You don't come to anything sleeping.
Midtjylland goalkeeper, Lössl, says:
It is an extremely important match. We have a huge revenge, and it burns madly in me in relation to getting revenge for our last meeting (Viborg won 3:1 November 10). We know the importance of this match.
Roma has the tightest Serie A home defense, conceding only 5 goals in 10 home matches. Today's opponent is Verona, which has the worst away scoring record — only 6 goals in 10 away matches. Paolo Dybala is the top scorer for Roma but he isn't in top form hence this pick to cover edge cases like 1:0 and 2:0.
Salzburg will rotate players due to matches vs Roma but is still an outright favorite here. Tirol is in exceptional form (4W, 1D), which is why I expect it to score.
Finals of the Serbian basketball cup. Crvena Zvezda eliminated Partizan last night by staying calmer and more concentrated; Partizan players choked in decisive moments. Mega is a definite underdog but has improved its recent form and started scoring 100+ points in regional tournaments. I don't expect 100:100 in this match but something like 95:75 is feasible.
Porto is having issues with injuries on the eve of the upcoming Champions League away match vs Inter but needs the win to catch up with Benfica (ahead by 5 points). Meanwhile, Rio Ave is in miserable form though its recent matches are typically low-scoring (5/6 had under 1.5 goals total).
Crvena Zvezda coach recently said he wants to snap his players out of lethargy and make them hungry for goals and wins. Meanwhile, Čukarički player, Docić, says:
We lost the last head-to-head 0:2. That was one of our lousier matches of the season. I think we showed Crvena Zvezda too much respect, which we shouldn't do this time around. We need to be brave and with good energy that can produce a good result.
Čukarički scored 6 goals in the past two matches, 2 of which were in stoppage time. That tells me it will fight to the last second, which should mean scoring a goal. It also signed up Richard dos Santos from Brazil, who is expected to debut today.
These two playing in cups (such as this one) typically have points totals slightly below 160, which is expected tonight as well. However, Crvena Zvezda will feature the uber-motivated Facundo Campazzo, who is banned from Euroleague and is eager to play. He can score 15+ points so I expect him to bring this pick over the finish line.
Vojvodina recently drew with the top team in the league and is now playing versus a poor team in poor form after the winter break (2L). Vojvodina coach, Milan Rastavac, says:
We're expecting a demanding match with lots of duels and exertion. Our opponent is vulnerable and we have ways to threaten it, win this match, and go back home with three points.
These two teams played 36 head-to-head matches, with Vojvodina winning 23, drawing 7, and losing 6. Vojvodina tends to score most of its goals in the second half, so 0:0 at half time is possible.
I have zero faith Partizan will qualify. It is in poor form (2W, 3D, 2L in 2023), with the most recent loss a 0:4 by a bottom-tier league team. My main argument is that its own coach thinks a 1:0 loss today would be a fine result. Gordan Petrić says:
A favorable result for us is 0:0, 1:1, 1:0, or even 0:1. There's still plenty of time, lets have things play out. It doesn't hold water if I say 1:0 [sic] is a fine result and it turns out otherwise.
The only unknown is Sheriff, which played only 2 matches in 2023 (1D, 1L) and shuffled around players and coaches. Surprises are possible but in this case I think Partizan qualifying would be the biggest.
Write up: Scott Parker managed to stabilize Club Brugge but only got one win (5D, 1L) and kept only one clean sheet. That kind of performance can't take his team far in the Champions League. He says:
Benfica is a top team but we will do everything we can in order to win. It is the first time we are in this situation and we're going to make the best of it.
Meanwhile, Benfica had 8 matches in 2023 (6W, 2D) and kept six clean sheets. Benfica coach, Roger Schmidt, says:
We've been through this before, and we know it's important to have a good first match, but in the end, it's the two games that count.
I think Club Brugge is due for walloping and it's going to be tonight.
I watched both teams' performance in the past ~45 days and my money is on Bayern. Basically, both teams had a crisis late January but Bayern bounced back while PSG is still in a pretty bad shape with two losses in a row. PSG concedes a lot and has trouble controlling the match tempo.
Mbappe was recently injured and the prognosis was 3 weeks but PSG coach ordered him back in the roster. That tells me he is desperate. Another problem for PSG is Neymar, who is acting like a diva.
Don't expect many goals, Bayern might score once or twice and park the bus.
Zadar is the only ABA League team that beat Crvena Zvezda this season (96:98 on November 7), and that was without its best player, Luka Božić. He's scheduled to play today.
Duško Ivanović, Crvena Zvezda coach, brought the strongest lineup to this match. He says:
We're looking at a very difficult match for a few reasons. Zadar is a solid team with a very experienced coach. They're playing with a lot of confidence this season. We will need to perform well and with great energy to reach our goal.
Danijel Jusup, Zadar coach, says:
Crvena Zvezda is coming to our arena motivated to win. We will give it our best and look for quick points in transition.
This is the highest points total I have available. If I had a higher one, I'd play it.
Finals of the Club World Cup. I checked Al Hilal's two matches in CWC and they were a travesty of football. Al Hilal scored a total of four goals, three of which were penalties. Its opponents got a red card each as well.
I took a closer look at one of the two penalties vs Flamengo and saw shoddy refereeing (3,018 KB MP4 file). I think Al Hilal will be boosted by referees in this match as well, such as by getting an inexplicable penalty. If not, there's still a chance that Real Madrid is awarded one.
Crvena Zvezda players are showing a bit of apathy. Their coach, Miloš Milojević, says:
I wish that my players would change their body language. They play in the best club in Serbia and there's no reason they should feel unhappy, pressured, and burdened.
As for the upcoming match, he says:
I expect maximum dedication in every match. The purpose of playing football is scoring goals, and that's where we have to improve and that's what we will show against Voždovac.
Braga scores plenty and isn't afraid of Benfica, whose only league away defeat this season came from Braga (3:0). Braga just got Bruma, a striker who already scored twice in his first match vs Famalicao (Braga won 4:1 on January 5). This match is played in Braga's stadium.
Porto emphasizes defense in cups. Porto coach, Sergio Conceicao, said after winning 2:0 vs Vizela:
It was a brilliant result, we didn't concede goals, I didn't mind winning like that all the time. I'd rather win like this than by three or four and concede one.
Juventus got -15 points for cooking the books, which puts it near relegation zone. Its priority is to lose as few points as possible and reach 40 points, which guarantees survival. Juventus coach, Allegri, says:
Tomorrow's match will be complicated. We must put ourselves on a par with Salernitana. It's a long season and we have to continue our journey.
Juventus won 3/5 last away matches with the 0:1 result. I'm expecting a similar match here, with few goals and a potential Juventus win. Use a bet builder to make this pick if you don't have it natively.
I watched Real Sociedad stall the game and hold the score. Vs Barcelona it only lost 1:0 with 10 players on the pitch; vs Real Madrid it drew 0:0. I have also seen it dominate teams in the first half and then park the bus. I can't predict the number of goals here but I am fairly certain Real Sociedad will lead at half time and keep the lead to the end.
Partizan coach, Petrić, says:
A demanding match because the conditions favor the host. Snow is expected and the pitch will be tough to play on but that's no excuse for my players. The only goal we have is to win; the art of football will come into play some other time. This won't be a pretty match.
Partizan has an upcoming match vs Sheriff soon so I expect Petrić to spare his best players. He says as much:
I told my players the lineup today won't be the same I'll be using in the coming weeks.
The top contestant for the title, Crvena Zvezda (#1 in the table, +11 points) drew yesterday vs Vojvodina, which gives another glint of hope that Partizan (#2) can snatch the title by winning today.
Roger Schmidt, Benfica coach, says (paraphrased):
At season start we won 0:1 vs Casa Pia. It was difficult — they are organized, defend well, and don't give many spaces to score. We are happy to play at home for our fans and we need the three points.
I followed Casa Pia through its last few matches. It used to have a strong defense but has started conceding and losing like crazy, such as the 2:0 loss to Estoril. I expect the downward spiral to continue.
First Super League match after the winter break. Crvena Zvezda is bound to score and Vojvodina wants to commemorate Siniša Mihajlović by playing well. Milan Rastavac, Vojvodina coach, says:
This match is a real treat. We prepared during the break and believe we can get something out of it through team play. We want to put Zvezda under control and surprise it, which is the only way to get what we want.
During the break, Zvezda struggled to keep a clean sheet. In three friendly matches played January 22–27, Zvezda conceded 7 goals.
Both teams score plenty but Real Madrid coach, Chus Mateo, announced a different approach:
Monaco are one of the toughest teams in the Euroleague. I'm expecting a difficult game that will be hard-fought from minute one. We have to understand the pace of the game that we need to deliver there.
They'll come out full of energy and we know we're heading to a special court, different to what we're used to, where it will be hard to take a win. Every team who has played there this year has struggled and so we'll definitely have to dig in if we want to win it.
In my mind, that means Real Madrid plans to win by deadening the rhythm of the match and playing defensively, which could translate to few points scored.
My inspiration for this pick is that Partizan is a very poor away team in Euroleague. Across 14 EL seasons, Partizan has 23 wins and 95 losses as an away team. Tonight, Partizan (3W 8L away in EL) is hosted by Zalgiris (8W 2L home in EL).
This pick is for regular time only (the odds are higher that way).
I found some interesting streaks related to both teams:
So, I think there's a good chance Lazio leads at half time or at least scores but might draw or lose the match.
Juventus coach, Allegri, says:
A tough match awaits. It will be a difficult match against Lazio, a team that is performing well at the moment. It could go all the way to extra-time, so substitutions might prove to be even more important.
Both teams are prone to scoring and conceding. Atlas played the last match 2:2 and the one before that 3:3, while Toluca played 0:0 with two players up and the one before that 1:2.
The last two head-to-head matches ended 3:2 for Toluca and 2:4 for Atlas (played in April and July 2022).
Manuel Neuer is still out, which makes me think Mainz will take advantage of it. In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz scored a total of 10 goals or exactly 2 goals on average per match, so there's no fear of Bayern.
In the last two league head-to-head matches hosted by Mainz, it scored early on (within 10 minutes of the kick-off).
PSG is still having trouble with scoring and hasn't won either of the last two league matches. To make matters worse, PSG will be playing without Neymar, who accounts for ~25% of all scored PSG goals, due to muscle injury.
The PSG coach, Christophe Galtier, says:
Matches at La Mosson are always difficult, there will be a lot of excitement tomorrow. The main thing to do in this match is to concentrate on our game and the intensity we will put into the game. We let points slip against Reims, we have to get them back in Montpellier.
De Colo is the top scorer in Lyon, with a 13.9 point average in Euroleague. December 13, he scored 32 points vs Partizan (Lyon won 91:87).
Partizan player, Danilo Anđušić, says about him:
Lyon got some new players but De Colo is the playmaker and we'll definitely have to stop him.
I watched Partizan play vs Mornar on January 29 and its defense was pretty bad, so I expect above average scoring by Lyon ASVEL tonight.
Udinese coach is "confident of good showing against Verona". He says:
I sense a battling atmosphere. Now we have turned the tide, no more mistakes, no more blunders, otherwise it'll just be words. The time has come to play with greater determination and concentration than in previous matches, maintaining the same quality that we have always shown.
He's referring to the 0:1 victory vs Sampdoria (January 22). Meanwhile, Verona still hasn't got a win away in Serie A. It also only has 5 goals scored in 9 away matches. I expect a low-scoring home win but will hedge my pick with the draw.
Quique Setien says for the upcoming match:
Rayo are doing very well under Iraola. They are a brave team that focuses on attack. We are getting better and better in many aspects of the game. There’s no better motivation than to get three points and that’s what we’re going to try to do again against Rayo.
Villareal scored at least twice in the last five head-to-head, winning the most recent one 1:5.
Mornar lost one of its top scorers, Daron Russell, who moved to Galatasaray. While he was at Mornar, he was scoring (total team points in brackets):
So, without him Mornar should score 60–70 points. Partizan is looking at two tough matches and should spare its players, but I still expect it having a tight defense. Other ABA league teams hosted by Partizan scored 60–70 points too.
Christophe Galtier says:
Reims is a good test to start this run of games. Reims are a team that don't concede many goals, it's not by chance. We have to work on our attacking style, which hasn't been as good recently, especially in the league.
Meanwhile, Reims lost none of the last 11 league matches and conceded 2+ only once during that run. I think Reims will go for a low-scoring draw here, which is what happened in their previous match (0:0, though PSG got a red card).
Tadić, Ajax captain, says in an interview for the Ajax website:
This is unacceptable. We have to get back on our feet. It feels like shit. We're talking too much but we need wins.
He's referring to Ajax narrowly avoiding defeat in the last three matches:
He appeared dejected and like he knows trouble is afoot. Ajax installed the youth team coach after Volendam, but I think he's a band-aid to a gunshot wound.
Meanwhile, Excelsior has only 1 draw from 18 league matches (6W, 11L). That tells me it is a team that goes all in, which should pay off vs dazed Ajax.
After beating Paul, Đoković said (paraphrased):
I'm at 110%. I'm not as fresh as at the start of the tournament but we put in a lot of effort to make me good enough and so I can endure 5-setters. Experience helps a lot. I will play like it's my last final. I'll give it all I've got.
Regarding his opponent and their encounter 2 years ago, when Đoković was two sets behind and turned the match around, he says (quoted):
It was really physical, mental, emotional battle — it always is with Stefanos. I respect him a lot, he has improved over the years. I actually think he's one of the most interesting guys on the tour with his interests off the court and his hairstyle and all.
I trust Đoković. If he says it will be a grueling battle, I will go with what provides the most value (that match I mentioned had 46 games).
Bayern is yet to get back to its winning ways. A few days ago, I picked Bayern hoping for a decisive win, but it could barely do anything and actually conceded straight away, eking out a draw in the closing minutes of the match. Cologne is a mid-tier team while Eintracht is a contender for the top spots in the table and the second best away team in Bundesliga, so I expect Bayern's agony to continue.
Bayern's star goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, broke his leg (?!), which explains a part of the problem. If Cologne managed to score so early on and got a draw, there's a good chance Eintracht Frankfurt scores too and wins or draws. In 10/10 matches this season when scoring first, Eintracht Frankfurt did not lose the match.
Portuguese cup final. I watched Porto throughout the cup and also watched Sporting the last time around (vs Arouca). In short, both teams can score and concede, which is what I expect, with one of them adding the third goal in regular time.
Porto focuses on defense in cup games but had one day of rest less than Sporting, which I'm sure will factor into their defense weakening in the second half. However, Porto's official website promises attacking for the win. As for Sporting, I saw a lot of ingenuity in scoring, especially when they scored vs Arouca in first half stoppage time.
The last time they met in this cup, it was the 2021 semifinals. Sporting won 2:1, with Porto scoring first in the second half, Sporting equalizing shortly after, and winning in stoppage time. You can wait for stoppage time and bet live on "Sporting scores".
RB Leipzig tends to concede (the last match it conceded to the weakest Bundesliga team) and it might happen in this match too. Stuttgart can score and recently changed the coach, which implies it will fight for at least a draw. However, Stuttgart also lacks discipline (the last match one Stuttgart player got the second yellow card for celebrating his goal).
I imagine goals on both sides and RB Leipzig winning in the late game, with a possible red card and/or penalty.
A Euroleague match that doubles as a basketball derby. Crvena Zvezda is highly favored because it:
Partizan struggles playing away matches but especially those in Euroleague. In the last 14 seasons, it won only 22 (twenty two) matches away in Euroleague.
After beating Rublev, Đoković said at the press conference:
I think I tried all the machines there are to make my leg better. And it worked. Now I just need to keep going.
For his opponent, Đoković says:
He doesn't have much to lose. He's playing great tennis. If I keep playing on the same level, I have good chances of winning.
Real and Barcelona are pretty even and the match could go either way.
However, I watched Real the last time it played home (vs Breogan in Spanish ACB eague) and its players seemed unfocused and dazed at moments, letting in too many points. I'm not sure what's going on with them but against Barcelona I think that behavior (which they showed the match before, vs Olympiakos, and which they lost) will cost them the match.
Barcelona won the last head-to-head (played January 2nd in Real's arena) by 9 points. This pick is for regular time only.
This is a bet builder pick. All three must be true:
Porto plays defensively in cups. Whatever the result, I am pretty sure Porto will take the early lead and won't concede.
Both teams have the best scorers available. I think both will try to score early, with Barcelona securing the victory in the second half. That's what happened in their last match (August 2022, 1:1 at half time and 1:4 at full time).
Barcelona has the best defense in the league (conceded once in 9 home matches, and that a penalty). However, Real Sociedad was one of the four teams that scored. The game could end 1:0 or 2:0 but I'm hoping Barcelona will make a spectacle (the good kind).
So far in this tournament only Dmitrov was capable of holding Đoković back, and he still lost with 6 games difference. Everyone else lost with 11+. I don't have any further news on Đoković's hamstring injury, which should mean he will prevail easily.
Bayern scores a lot at home. In the last three Bundesliga home matches, it scored 17 goals, 9 of which in first halves. That does include matches from last year, but I don't expect Bayern will have any trouble in scoring early.
French Cup match. Messi won't appear but Neymar and Mbappe will. I expect PSG to immediately go on the offensive.
There are two players who can make this pick pass. Cedevita Olimpija has Yogi Ferrell, who scores 20+ points. Crvena Zvezda has Facundo Campazzo, who isn't allowed to play in Euroleague until March, so he compensates when he does get a chance to play (vs MZT Skopje in an ABA League match he scored 23 points).
This pick includes overtime.
Đoković is still struggling with his thigh injury, which should result in a struggle for victory starting from the first set.
Real Madrid almost never loses first halves at home. The last five home matches it led at half time by:
The 2-point lead was vs Barcelona.
Real Sociedad is a stronger team but its injured player list is getting longer with each new fixture and the official website notes the players are a bit tired. Besides that, these two teams are capable of scoring and the match should produce goals on both sides, which happened in 2/3 of their most recent head-to-head matches.
Truth be told, it's not good at all. I can only go day by day and pray to God it's all going to turn out fine.
Those were Đoković's words after beating Couacaud 3:1 on the 19th. He was referring to his left thigh injury, which is causing him significant discomfort.
Couacaud (191. on the ATP list) won a tiebreak in the 2nd set, which is the only set in the tournament so far where Đoković did not break his opponent. To me, that's a clear sign Đoković has to slow down to not aggravate his injury, which means letting the match play out.
Today's opponent is Dimitrov (28.), who has only given one break chance across his last two matches. I expect an exciting match, few breaks, and at least one tiebreak.
Olympiacos coach, Giorgos Bartzokas, says:
The majority of our players must have a good night. All in all, it’s going to be a difficult game.
He's referring to the fact Olympiacos' Vezenkov scores ~20% of its points in any given game. Normally, that would do it but now all Olympiacos players must pitch in.
When asked about losing home games, he says:
I was asked again recently, if we feel pressure because we have lost three home games. I would like to remind you that Real, that’s also ranking at the top, has lost three home games and Barcelona as well. That’s how the Euroleague is.
I think Real Madrid is a much more balanced team, where one or two players having a bad night won't drag the entire team down. Real Madrid has consistently shocked me with how much it can outpace the opponent, which I think will happen tonight too.
After the initial match against Germany (34:33), the Serbian national handball team bounced back much better than I expected, convincingly beating Qatar (24:34). Now it must face Norway, which is one of tougher opponents, at least judging by the odds.
My logic behind this pick is that the Serbs now have their best goalkeeper, Dejan Milosavljev, who was absent due to an injury. His first match after nearly a month of absence was vs Qatar, which I believe was the main reason for the spread.
I may be partial here, but I've watched Serbia play vs Germany and the Serbs do have the class to compete with the best. For example, Serbia has the 3rd best attack in the tournament so far, behind Denmark and Sweden. They are amped up and don't seem to have any mental blocks.
Željko Obradović, Partizan coach, says for the Valencia match:
The last match against Asvel, Valencia played for the first time some defense plays that it didn't show in Euroleague this season, four in a zone on De Colo, zone two three (text seems garbled here). We have to prepare for it so we don't get any surprises.
When asked what changed since their last encounter almost two months ago, he says:
I guess we play defense better. We also have two players fully recovered.
When asked about the poor away record for Partizan (lost 7/10 last away matches and two of those three wins came in ABA League, where Partizan trounces everyone), he says:
We play better at home, it's probably because the players feel good in the home arena, where they know every detail. There's the home fan support, which is of course a significant factor, but if we want to compete in Euroleague we need to play better away matches.
To me, that sounds like he's aware Valencia will shut down Partizan's attacks. I watched the last Partizan away match (lost vs Maccabi 90:81) and there's indeed something wrong with Partizan players in away stadiums. That time, they couldn't score the first four minutes of the match, which cost them the win. I think something similar will happen with Valencia too.
I checked Milan's last 10 home matches and found two interesting patterns:
In 7/10 last home matches, Milan scored in both halves and won. This pattern holds up with remarkable regularity in away matches as well — it happened in 9/10 last away matches.
Also, according to the Flashscore.com analysis of this match, Inter's manager, Simone Inzaghi, complained about his team being fatigued. I think Milan is stronger here and will win, which should mean it scores in both halves.
I checked the last 10 home matches of Real Sociedad. In 9 of those, the outcome (1/X/2) at half time stayed the same at full time. So, if Real Sociedad was winning/drew/lost at HT, it had the same outcome at FT, though a few more goals might have been scored. The only exception is Betis (0:0 HT, 0:2 FT). That tells me Real Sociedad is a disciplined team that knows how to guard the result.
If Real Sociedad doesn't lead at half time, it might not even qualify, though I expect no trouble vs Mallorca. I would avoid playing on goals because cup games can easily go from 1:0 to something like 3:1.
Đoković has been having some issues lately with his left hamstring. I don't know the exact extent of the injury until I watch him a bit more but I expect he won't push himself to the max in the first match. In my mind, that means he will not go for a break of serve right away.
Estoril got only 1 point from its last 5 league matches while Casa Pia got 10, which includes a 0:0 with Porto while being a man down and a 0:1 win over Braga.
Granada is playing its first season of top-tier Spanish basketball and has already racked up 7 defeats in a row. Meanwhile, Real Madrid won 8/9 of its most recent matches, the last two of which were in Serbia and Germany. This would normally be a trouncing of the highest order, but the official Real Madrid website says:
After this week's travels, the mental aspect and concentration will become even more important. (...) Now, the team will have to face, in addition to a great rival, the fatigue factor. A tough, fresh test at Granada's Palacio de Deportes.
That indicates that Real Madrid won't perform on peak level, which is enough for me to play the home advantage handicap.
The German handball team regularly scores 30+ goals. Meanwhile, the Serbs announced they will do their best to keep up in hopes of managing a win from an underdog position.
Ilija Abutović, a Serbian handballer on the team, says:
We know Germany better than Algeria. We're preparing well, but we must play on a higher level than against Algeria and hope for the best. What's certain is that we won't give up and that we will fight the entire 60 minutes of the match, no matter how things pan out.
Toni Gerona, the Serbian team coach, says:
Stopping Germans won't be easy. They have a quality roster but we're willing to fight the entire 60 minutes.
Serbia lost all of the last five head-to-head matches. The most recent one was in 2019 and ended 31:23 for Germany.
The Croatian handball team is struggling mightily. Croatia lost in the Handball World Cup preliminary round to Egypt (22:31). This caused an uproar in Croatia, with prominent handballers saying only a miracle can help them qualify for Olympic Games.
Goran Šprem, a retired Croatian handballer, said as he was casting the match:
I'm having a hard time accepting this defeat. I'm not losing faith, of course, but I can't bear watching this. I just can't fathom that we played no defense. I expect the team to react after this defeat, even if the players have to slap each other silly in the locker room.
His colleague, Petar Metličić, chimed in:
Goran is saying what I've been saying last year. For years now we've been having issues with attack and we won't admit handball is in freefall in Croatia. Can someone explain, why were we considered favorites against Egypt? Theirs was a much better team than ours, that was clear before the match. I don't know when we'll face reality.
While I do accept Croatia can bounce back and curb stomp USA, I find the 1.01 odds on Croatia unrealistic. Also, the draw is already known and Croatia will later face Denmark, which even the most optimistic Croats consider unbeatable, removing a large part of their motivation.
Real Sociedad scored 2 goals in each of its last 3 La Liga matches, even while playing the most recent one without its best scorer, Brais Mendez. Now that he's back, I expect a similar outcome.
Meanwhile, I put zero faith in Athletic Bilbao, which I closely watched play versus Osasuna (my pick on that day). The match ended 0:0 despite Athletic Bilbao dominating the entire match.
Wikipedia says this is the 172nd Basque Derby, with Real Sociedad scoring 271 (1.58 per match) and Athletic Bilbao scoring 221 (1.29). Out of the last 10 they played in La Liga, Real Sociedad won 5, drew 3, and lost 2.
Baskonia will play without its star scorer, Marcus Howard, who is experiencing back pain. He averages 15.9 points, scoring 46% of all attempted 3-pointers. In the last five Baskonia games, he scored (total points scored by his team in brackets):
So, he scores up to 25–30% of all points for his team. I expect a handy Partizan win. This pick is for regular time only.
In 18 Euroleague matches this season, Mike James scored 16.8 points on average. Throughout his career, he has played 223 times and scored 16.2 points on average.
January 10, Mike James scored 19 points, carrying Monaco to victory over Olympiacos in Euroleague (match ended 64:60). January 8, he scored 22 for another Monaco victory in French national league (match ended 83:77).
Duško Ivanović, Crvena Zvezda coach, says:
We don't have a recipe for him. When a player is as unpredictable as he is, it's hard to guard him. But, I think we will find a player that will be able to diminish his impact.
This pick is for regular time only.
According to the Flashscore.com preview of the match, "Betis manager Manuel Pellegrini is taking this competition seriously, stating Betis 'are going to Arabia to try to beat Barcelona.'" However, Barcelona now has Lewandowski.
If your sportsbook does not have this pick, use a bet builder to make it. This pick is for regular time only.
Both teams played a match January 8 — Maccabi vs Hapoel Haifa and Partizan vs Cibona. I checked the lineups from those games and discovered both teams' coaches rested their best scorers. Maccabi's rested Brown (17.6 points average in Euroleague) and Baldwin (14.0) while Partizan's only gave a few minutes to Punter (14.8), Lessort (13.4), and Exum (12.6) while keeping LeDay (12.0) off the court. That's a strong indication both coaches will focus on offense tonight.
There are lower points totals but I like to go to the max. This pick is for regular time only.
After drawing with Casa Pia despite being a man up, there's a bit of disappointment in Porto. I'm sure the team will try to lift its spirits by beating Arouca, which recently lost 5:1 to Porto (conceded 3 in the first half).
Real Madrid is coming to Belgrade. The home stadium is buzzing with excitement and, no matter the result, everyone's looking forward to an epic match. The most dangerous Real Madrid player is Tavares, who is well-rounded but excels in defense, averaging 2.7 blocks per match.
My reasoning behind this pick is that Euroleague teams have never been more even. Anyone can beat anyone, especially considering the tight schedules and long travel distances. Also, Crvena Zvezda recently drew with Barcelona, which beat Real Madrid. That makes me think Crvena Zvezda can eke out a win tonight.
This pick is for regular time only. You can also wait for this pick live and see if Crvena Zvezda is losing at half time (in 80% of home matches it failed claw back to victory when losing at half time).
I checked the websites of both teams. Home team's coach, Ernesto Valverde, says:
Athletic can't let up for a single minute. I predict a tough and uncomfortable game for us, but hopefully for them as well. They're a strong and competitive team who try to make life impossible for you from the start of the game, but so do we. They are having a great season, but we will try to make our strengths work for us.
Osasuna's coach, Jagoba Arrasate, says:
To have any options to win at San Mames, you have to be almost perfect. We have to improve. We are talking about the fastest team in LaLiga. Their condition, physically, they are best as well.
We need to make them uncomfortable when we don't have the ball. If Athletic feels comfortable, if we let them run and give them space, we don't have many options.
Both are giving respect to each other, but I think that Osasuna's coach knows his team is about to lose. He seems to be testing things out, such as trying new formations, rather than using what he knows works. So, my idea is that Athletic Bilbao will win with at least 2 goals difference.
Crvena Zvezda has barely recovered from the Valencia clash and it's already time for another match, this time in Adriatic League. In two days, it's hosting Real Madrid, which makes me think its players will spare themselves.
MZT Skopje lost 7/8 last matches but rarely loses with a double-digit difference and manages to score quite a bit. It also changed the coach, who oversaw the last match (drew away with fairly strong Cibona and lost in overtime).
I expect MZT Skopje will put up a valiant effort and lose with a narrow difference, though there's never a way to tell with such a team. Crvena Zvezda tends to score fewer points that normal in ABA League matches, giving me another reason to think the match won't be a blowout win.
Facundo Campazzo is again available for Crvena Zvezda, but he still can't play in Euroleague until March 1 due to an administrative ban. He scored 8 points versus Split.
This pick applies to regular time only.
Real Madrid simply can't lose the first half of its home matches. The only one who came close was Barcelona in their January 2 match, but Lull drained a half-court buzzer-beater to put Real in the lead at half time (the video is a 16 MB, 1080p MP4 file).
Other than that, Real tends to score a lot in the first half and Gran Canaria scores plenty of threes. This is what the official Real Madrid website says about Gran Canaria:
Madrid will be up against a solid side, with unity outshining individuality. Jaka Lakovic's charges are one of the teams that hit the most three-pointers per game (10.1) with an efficiency rate of 37.4%, two tenths of a point lower than the madridistas, who come into the clash after an exhibition against Maccabi with 18 three-pointers.
For this pick to win, home team must win first half AND both teams must score a combined total of 81 or more points in the first half.
Đoković did have some trouble yesterday with his left hamstring at 5:2 in the first set but eventually recovered enough to convincingly beat Medvedev. No matter what pain he's going through, I expect him to be fit enough to trounce Korda in the first set, who did beat Murray and Sinner recently.
Acceptable results for the first set are:
I checked the half time stats of Casa Pia. Out of 14 league matches, it has won 4 first halves, drawn 9, and lost only 1. At home, the stats are even more compelling — won 1, drawn 6, and lost 0. I think there's more than a 50% chance of a HT draw in this match and the odds are juicy enough for me.
TNS typically scores a lot of goals, beating Airbus in two end-to-end matches by a combined goal total of 15:0! I don't expect that many goals but I do think 5+ is doable. The away team might score one or two as well.
Though Đoković won against Shapovalov yesterday, the victory wasn't as decisive as the final result shows. Đoković was broken more than once and Shapovalov missed at least 4 chances to get back in the match, 3 of which were in the first set.
This time around, I'm going against the grain and opting for Medvedev win.
Two evenly matched teams with high ambitions. The away team is missing a few key players but recently managed to hold its own against Barcelona so I expect a valiant effort and possibly a win.
Đoković struggled a lot against Halys, winning in two tiebreaks. I predict he's going to struggle against Shapovalov as well.
Monaco is one of the top teams in the Euroleague meeting Partizan who has had a run of 6 wins but its luck has to run out at some point. Sofascore says this for Monaco:
When the odds are 2.50 the expected chance of winning is 40%, but this team actually wins 67% matches with these odds.
This pick is for regular time only.
Last time I watched Đoković was when he played vs Zverev. He looked tired and past his prime. Indeed, Đoković seems to have bounced back by winning two matches, but Ofner (ATP #193) taking a set off of him is not a good sign. I expect he will lose a couple games to Halys too, which might be enough to push this pick past the mark.
Tradition and current form are not in Roma's favor. In the last two head-to-head matches, Roma failed to score. Also, Bologna has more wins vs Roma than any other Serie A team (51 in 148 head-to-head matches).
Since September, Roma played 5 Serie A home matches, winning only once (D1, L3). In fact, Roma has a 3W, 1D, 3L home record in Serie A this season. Meanwhile, Bologna won 4/5 of its last matches (lost to Inter 6:1).
Factor X is player form. Roma will be fielding almost the strongest possible roster while Bologna will be without several regular players.
This pick combines "double chance X2" and "0–3 goals". Your sportsbook should have a bet builder where you can make it.
Round of 8 of Israel State Cup. Eran Zahavi, Maccabi player, says:
Sakhnin are a very tough side and we respect every opponent that face us. However, we will be playing at Bloomfield in front of our fans so we should secure our place in the next round. Obviously it will be easy (sic!) and we will have to work very hard to do so which is exactly what we are planning on doing.
Last three head-to-head matches ended 0:1, 1:0, and 0:0.
Spanish basketball derby that typically ends with a low points spread and low points count (last five head-to-head all ended under 150 points). I've been watching both teams play through the last month or so. I am partial to Real Madrid but am cautious, because this is what Chus Mateo, Real Madrid coach, says:
We want to go out and win the game and approach it full of confidence, but we have to leave everything on the court. We'd like to make our fans happy.
It seems he is aware of the challenge, so I will opt for a total points count.
After the devastating defeat to Barcelona in overtime, Crvena Zvezda has to catch up with the ABA League schedule. Split is much stronger than the most recent head-to-head score would indicate due to the intervening player sign-ups, such as Shorter (avg. 18.5 pts.), Mavra (17.7), and Nelson (10.7).
Crvena Zvezda coach, Duško Ivanović, says:
Split plays well in transition, it is an aggressive team that's hard to defend against.
Crvena Zvezda player, Branko Lazić, says:
We're expecting a difficult match. We didn't have a lot of time to recover after Barcelona and we have certain roster issues, but we're still preparing seriously for this match.
Crvena Zvezda has Facundo Campazzo available. The team will travel to Spain immediately after to play vs Valencia on January 6.
I checked both teams' websites. Lens FC website announced defending and the PSG website states:
This fixture has a history of scoring goals: 261 in 86 matches, with an average of more than three goals scored per game. On only four occasions have the two teams finished a match scoreless.
I expect Lens to score early on and defend, with PSG equalizing in the 2nd half. Neymar is absent due to a red card ban.
Just a hunch that this might happen because Maccabi tends to score at least once in the first half.
This pick is based on a couple observations:
Factor X for this bet is Lewandowski, who just got his red card ban lifted. He is Barca's best scorer and might tank this pick singlefootedly.
Barcelona is the clear favorite here and I expect it to dictate the match tempo. It has an upcoming derby vs Real Madrid (January 2nd), for which I think it will spare the best players, eking out a win. Crvena Zvezda will be without its star signup, Facundo Campazzo, due to not fulfilling administrative obligations to Euroleague.
I expect a slow, methodical, and conservative match, with few points scored and a tight win by Barcelona. The last two matches where Crvena Zvezda was the host (both in 2021) ended 69:76 and 60:72.
This pick covers regular time only. If the total is too low for your comfort, take a higher one.
Baskonia and Real Madrid are two evenly matched teams. In Euroleague, both have 10W, 5L and on average score 85.6 and 83.8 respectively. I've been keeping a close eye on Real Madrid and think it's going to blink first.
Here's what the Real Madrid coach, Chus Mateo, has to say about the match:
We’re looking forward to the game and we’re relishing the challenge of taking on a side that’s doing really well and has produced some top-level stuff in both competitions. We have total respect for them, and they’ve also won ten consecutive games. We’re up for the game and we hope we can get the win.
Real Madrid player, Gabriel Deck, says:
We’re up against strong opposition, who are doing really well, and on a tough court. It’ll be tough. We have to play at high intensity for 40 minutes because it’ll be a difficult game against a side that hits a lot of three-pointers and hits you on the counterattack. They also play at high intensity, and we’ll have to be at our best to stop them and then play our game in attack.
In my mind, Real Madrid is looking towards the upcoming derby vs Barcelona (2nd January) and will put up a fight but won't be able to resist Baskonia. This pick is for regular time only.
Porto is 8 points behind Benfica in the league table. I checked the Porto FC official website and all the recent news there is gloating about cup successes and winning it through strong defense. No mention of the league.
There is one article talking about Porto going into all matches with the intention to win, but something's got to give. My logic is that Porto will focus on the cup and go through the motions in the league, which could mean conceding tonight.
Arouca is also a much tougher team than it appears. In 6 away matches this season, Arouca has 2W, 3D, 1L (that one defeat was to Benfica).
Jokić regularly scores around 30 points. In his last 5 matches, he scored:
Real Madrid has two away matches in row, this being the first one, before hosting Barcelona. In my mind, Real players are already saving their stamina for that match and won't exert themselves too much here.
Real Madrid coach, Chus Mateo, says:
"We have to be totally focused and we can't afford to switch off. It's not just another game, we can't place little importance on an away game in the league. Our opposition is playing really well and deserve to be where they are in the upper part of the table.
They're a well-coached team and look very strong at home. They defend well and have two big blocking centers. They are very well drilled in defense. Bilbao are really dangerous and they're in great form."
My pick covers only regular time; if the match goes to overtime, my pick wins but yours might not (check your pick carefully).
Newcastle Jets has a poor away record, managing only 10 shots on target and 2 goals across four away matches. So, on average one shot on target every 36 minutes.
Meanwhile, Adelaide United conceded only once in two home matches. The sample sizes are small but I still think this is worth a shot.
Pesaro is a decent team, hosting Virtus Bologna that plays Fenerbahce in a few days. I expect some resistance from Pesaro and potentially a win.
Atletico Madrid may not be as motivated or its players as rested as people expect. Atletico Madrid is 5th in La Liga, with 1W, 2D, 2L from the past 5 matches, making me think Copa del Rey might not be the team's priority. Several Atletico Madrid players were prominent during the World Cup, adding to the fatigue factor.
I checked the Copa del Rey record for Atletico Madrid across the past five years:
Also, in its last 20 home matches, Arenteiro has 12W, 6D, 2L and has only lost once with a 2+ goal difference. Yes, there is a huge quality gap between Segunda RFEF - Group 1 and La Liga, but I'm willing to bet on this one.
The safer version of this bet is "home team won't lose with a 2+ goal difference" at 2.50. The saucier version of this bet is Arenteiro wins the match at 20.00. You can also split one unit between all three mentioned bets so you are ahead as long as at least one bet wins (that's my plan).
Gil Vicente scored 9 goals in its last 5 matches, 6 of which were in the first half. Granted, 3 of those 6 were penalties, but that shows a consistent willingness to attack, create chances, and score from the start. That makes me think Gil Vicente is a team that pays no respect to the superior opponent and is motivated to score, which might as well happen in the first half.
If you're feeling adventurous, do "both score in the first half" at 5.60. Porto rarely loses first halves of its matches.
This is an exhibition match played in UAE on hard court. In the last five head-to-head matches, played in 2021, Zverev won at least one set (all were on hard court).
Zverev won 8 sets in the last five head-to-head matches (average is 1.6 sets per match), which makes me think he might have a chance at beating Đoković, which he did in their last 2/3 matches.
I checked the yellow card stats from Argentina's matches in 2018 World Cup:
On average, 5 yellow cards a match. In 2022 World Cup, Argentina's matches produced the following card counts:
On average, 4.7 yellow cards a match.
I also checked the today's referee stats. In his last 17 matches, he showed 86 yellow cards, which is 5 per match on average. The sample sizes are fairly small and we don't know the instructions Marciniak received, but I like the idea of sitting back and enjoying the drama.
I'm thinking that emotions are going to be running high today. I expect a lot of arguing, time wasting, and provocations, especially after the first goal. This is the uppermost limit on yellow cards I could find. I like it more than safer bets, such as over 4.5 yellow cards at 2.68.
Check your bookie's rules on cards. My bookie counts a straight red card as 2 yellow cards and Y+Y=R as 3 yellows.
I checked third-place matches throughout World Cup history. There were 19 such matches and only one went to overtime. This tells me teams fighting for third place don't play as much defense as they normally would. Also, here's the statistical breakdown of those 19 matches:
Out of all those, the "both score in the first half" is way beyond what I would expect. I would expect it to be around 2.00 when it's over double that, 4.70. The "over 1.5 goals in the first half" is also a tempting offer, but I decided to go with a riskier play that pays out much more.
Things aren't looking good for Partizan (1W, 1D/L, 6L). Despite a pricey roster this season, the results aren't there. It's always the same problem — no discipline in the 4th quarter, when the players start doing their own thing and basically forfeit the match.
Based on the comments and discussions I've read on the subject, it seems the problem player is Kevin Punter, the current team captain. IMO until he is reined in there won't be a change for the better. For now, he has infinite trust of Željko Obradović, the team manager, who also says:
Efes is the twice-incumbent champion of Europe. That fact alone says the team has quality but also the individuals in it have quality. Efes has game creators such as Micić, Beaubois, and Clyburn. The way I imagine our game plan tonight is to try and minimize their creative potential. We'll see how that pans out. We need even more desire to win, more fighting spirit, and more concentration than before. We need to believe in ourselves and play with confidence.
I don't see Partizan getting anything out of tonight's match because it has lost to weaker teams than Efes. Granted, those were away matches and Partizan is strong at home, but I'm counting on Punter to do his thing and once again dash Partizan's hopes in the 4th quarter.
This is a preparatory cup for Mexican soccer clubs. Teams typically don't make an effort to win matches in it but rather treat it as warm-up matches before the season proper. At some bookies, this match (and other matches in this cup) may be categorized as "friendly match".
Another in a series of away matches for Real Madrid. In the last match, Real beat Bayern 64:68, with points quite a bit below their away average (76.7 scored, 71.3 conceded). Fatigue is apparently setting in and I expect Real to push just enough to win but not more than that. Zalgiris Kaunas this season home in Euroleague on average scored 71.2 and conceded 74.5. I expect a narrow Real win, for example 70:75, with a lower performing second half.
So far, Morocco has performed way beyond expectations, scoring in 3/5 WC matches while France's last 4/5 matches in World Cup had "both score & 3+". I see a clear trend on both sides, for which the odds in this case are abnormally high and I think it's worth a try.
Barcelona seems in a poor state, with 2 wins and 2 defeats in the last 4 matches. Looking at the scores and matchups, I see Barcelona has barely eked the two wins against fairly weak teams. On the other hand, Monaco parried Real on its court a few days ago.
Crvena Zvezda is in stellar form (8 W, 1D/W, 1 L), hosting weakened Zalgiris in poor form (2 Euroleague home defeats in a row). At least three key Zalgiris players will be missing from the tonight's roster and one junior Zalgiris player, Kajus Kublickas, is expected to debut.
Crvena Zvezda player, Ognjen Dobrić, says:
"We're in a good mood. We play well, train well, and have no worries. Zalgiris is a tough team, they play tough and have good defense, sometimes even with five short players. We need to be tougher, but we're playing in front of our fans."
Crvena Zvezda player, Nemanja Nedović, says:
"I am sure our team defense will be top tier tonight, which is what we need to win. We have the confidence and the form; now we just need to transfer that onto the court."
Zalgiris coach, Kazys Maksvytis, says:
"We're in for a difficult match, and we're going to play it wounded. We enjoy playing against tactical teams, where we can create a counter-tactic. We're not afraid of the physical aspect of the game. Of course, there's the matter of how much strength we'll have. We will try to rotate the roster. I see some things repeating and it's not pleasant. At the start of a match, we let the opponent score 10 points and only then start playing. We're trying to avoid that."
The last head-to-head match where Crvena Zvezda was the host ended 73:61 (played in October 2021).
Partizan has another challenging match, this time away to Cedevita Olimpija. The last 9 times Partizan was away to Cedevita, it only won once (not counting one friendly match).
Partizan coach, Željko Obradović, says:
We have the experience from the last season, when we lost two times to Cedevita, so that is enough to find the extra motivation, which is being in ABA League. We know this is a very important match.
Partizan player, Danilo Anđušić, says:
Cedevita has really good invididuals, such as Ferrell and Omić. It won't be easy at all, we're not in the best spot right now, especially after that derby, but we need to rise up. We need maximum concentration to win here and get some positive energy for the Lyon match (played 13th December).
Morocco so far played against subpar or unmotivated World Cup opponents, conceding only once vs Canada. For example, Spain made only one shot on target and Canada made zero. Spaniards didn't want to run into open space and were actively dodging the ball (check the highlights on FIFAs official website), which made Morocco appear much stronger defensively than it is. I think Portugal is far superior and motivated to score early and keep the lead to the end.
Croatia has a plan — draw the first 90 minutes. Croatia reached the 2018 WC finals by drawing and winning three knockout matches: vs Denmark (penalties), vs Russia (penalties), and vs England (extra time). In this WC, Croatia already drew vs Japan (penalties). Due to the odds limit in the subreddit and because Croatia is much stronger than she seems, I will go with the double chance play.
Partizan and Crvena Zvezda are bitter rivals (more info on Wikipedia). Partizan is in bad form (1W, 1D/L, 3L) and has the worst defense in Euroleague. Red Star (4W, 1D/W) is also better in head-to-head (6W, 3L this season). Red Star won vs Partizan in ABA League 90:74 on November 28.